[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Polymarket has launched prediction-market contracts targeting private companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

CNBC reported on May 19 that the products are designed to let investors bet on milestones such as private-company valuations, the timing of initial public offerings and moves in secondary markets.

A key point is that retail investors can take part in major events in private markets. The structure does not involve directly owning shares. Polymarket contracts pay out depending on whether a specific private-market event occurs, and they do not provide equity, shares or voting rights.

Polymarket has opened markets asking whether OpenAI will list at a valuation of $1 trillion or more before 2027, and whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of $500 billion or more in 2026. It also listed a contract on whether Anthropic’s valuation will surpass OpenAI’s at some point this year.

Nasdaq Private Market will exclusively provide the data used for settlement. The key information that determines whether contracts settle will also be supplied there. Nasdaq Private Market also decided to make valuation data that had been accessible by subscription available for free.

This launch strongly targets the limits of access to investing in private companies. Nasdaq said there are more than 1,600 unicorns with valuations of $1 billion or more, but the investors who can directly invest in these companies are concentrated among accredited investors, institutions or investors with limited networks. Retail investors have effectively been excluded.

Polymarket presented a channel for individuals to take part in the early stages of value creation in private markets under this structure. The company said traders can take positions on whether specific private-market events occur without holding equity. It also cited that it can additionally provide real-time price signals to institutions.

There is also a market comparison. Kalshi offers event contracts on whether some private companies will go public, but it does not run markets targeting valuations themselves. Kalshi settles by combining company websites, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and multiple media reports, while Polymarket’s products use Nasdaq Private Market data as the benchmark.

It also emerged that actual private-market price information could draw interest to these contracts. Nasdaq Private Market’s Anthropic page showed an estimated price of $477.02 as of May 5. That figure was up more than 1,500 percent. The same page also listed a best bid of $260.80, a lowest ask of $188.50 and a last trade of $234.00. Nasdaq Private Market explained that the price is calculated based on market activity, disclosed valuation data and its own information.

The point to watch for these products is not simply a contest of preference between OpenAI and Anthropic. It has become more important whether private-market information is clear enough to translate into tradable contracts, whether liquidity can be secured and whether the settlement benchmark can win trust. Private stock markets have more dispersed information on secondary prices, fundraising rounds and listing timing than listed stocks, drawing attention to whether such prediction markets will establish themselves as new price signals.