[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Even as money has flowed into XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for nine straight sessions, the token faces the possibility of a drop of as much as about 50 percent.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 19 that XRP has fallen 12 percent over the past five days. On a three-day chart, it also broke below the lower boundary of a bear pennant, a bearish continuation pattern.

The market is now focused on the downside level. XRP/USD has stayed within the bear pennant range on a three-day chart since early February. The downside target for this pattern is calculated by applying the initial decline to the breakdown point, and the target now cited is $0.65. That is about 52.5 percent below current levels.

Weekly chart indicators are also leaning bearish. Technical analyst ChartNerd said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that XRP's weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) confirmed a death cross, marking the third time the signal has appeared since the all-time high (ATH) in July 2025. He said the previous two crosses were followed by deeper corrections of about 50 percent and that the January signal came after a relief rally that led to a weekly 20-week and 50-week exponential moving average death cross.

Short-term momentum has also weakened. XRP's daily RSI fell to 42 from 63 over the past seven days. That means buying pressure is weakening.

The market is watching whether $1.27 holds. If a closing price forms below that level, forecasts suggest XRP/USDT could slide to $1.11 and then to the psychological support level of $1.

Institutional flows, however, are moving in a different direction from the price. XRP spot ETFs saw net inflows of $750,000 as of May 19, according to SoSoValue. Net inflows extended to nine straight sessions, with cumulative inflows of $95.5 million over that period. Cumulative net inflows were close to $1.4 billion, and assets under management (AUM) were tallied at $1.14 billion.

Inflows also continued in global products. XRP investment products took in about $67.6 million in the week ended May 15. Over the same period, bitcoin investment products saw outflows of $981.5 million and ethereum investment products had outflows of $250 million. XRP-related products showed relatively strong flows.

Some in the market interpret the trend as rising confidence in exposure through the regulated financial system. Analyst TronWeekly said, "Institutional demand for XRP products is heating up," and assessed that it suggests growing trust in regulated crypto exposure. It is read as a backdrop for continued inflows regardless of price weakness.

The next variable is whether conditions for a technical rebound are actually met. Factors cited as boosting the odds of a price recovery include stronger technical confirmation, passage of the Clarity Act in the United States and a recovery in network activity. For now, the market appears more sensitive to chart damage and whether key support levels hold than to ETF inflows.

$XRP Update: the weekly Stoch RSI has confirmed a deathcross, marking the third time this signal has flashed since the July-2025 ATH. The previous two crosses produced deeper corrections and coincided with a relief rally into a weekly 20/50 EMA death cross in January 2026… https://t.co/x1DR4gOr79 pic.twitter.com/lwqs6Iy1Fh