A forecast says the U.S. Senate cryptocurrency market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act could effectively be derailed after the midterm elections if it fails to clear the hurdle of a floor vote before August.

On May 18, blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that Greg Cipolaro (그레그 치폴라로), head of research at financial services firm NYDIG, set a realistic deadline for Senate action from June to early August.

The bill sets out how U.S. regulators will oversee the cryptocurrency market and is seen as one of Congress' key crypto legislative efforts this year. Reviews have been delayed as calls for revisions continue over stablecoin provisions and public officials’ use of cryptocurrencies.

Patrick Witt (패트릭 위트), a senior crypto adviser at the White House, previously presented July 4 as a target date for passage earlier this month. He cited enough time for Senate committee revisions and review, a floor vote, and a House vote. Cipolaro, however, assessed it as an optimistic benchmark rather than a fixed legislative deadline.

The Senate Banking Committee, after a long delay, completed its revision review and sent the bill to the floor. The committee vote largely followed party lines. But to avoid lengthy debate and pass the bill on the floor, 60 votes are needed.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. For fast-track handling, at least 7 Democrats would need to vote in favor. But some Democratic lawmakers see the bill as lacking sufficient safeguards to prevent crime and sanctions evasion.

The schedule is also seen as a variable. The U.S. Congress goes into recess from late July to early September, and then moves into politics ahead of the November midterm elections. Cipolaro said it was unlikely that Senate leaders would bring the bill to the floor during that period and succeed in securing 60 votes. If the bill passes that period, the post-election lame-duck session could effectively be the last channel.

That possibility also comes with conditions. Cipolaro said that if the bill misses an August processing window, the remaining likely route is a post-election lame-duck session. But that scenario is possible only if Republicans keep the Senate majority and Majority Leader John Thune prioritises the bill over the government budget deadline.

Uncertainty is also growing because polls currently show a tight race for control of the Senate. Some forecasts point to a Republican edge, while others also suggest Democrats could retake the Senate depending on outcomes in battleground states.

Cipolaro judged that if Democrats take the Senate majority, the CLARITY Act, currently led by Republicans, would struggle to make progress in the next Congress starting in January 2027. A shift in legislative leadership could change the bill’s content and priorities.

From a market perspective, whether the bill passes is directly tied to expectations of institutional inflows. Cipolaro said that if the bill is enacted, legal clarity would allow major institutions to invest in the cryptocurrency market with greater confidence. Bitcoin in particular is classified as a commodity under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, he said, meaning the last major regulatory uncertainty remaining over bitcoin as an institutional asset class could be resolved.

Conversely, the bill could still fail if negotiations again stall over ethics provisions or enforcement rules for decentralised finance, or if delays in the legislative schedule overlap. In that case, the crypto industry could continue to operate in what Cipolaro called “permanent jurisdictional ambiguity.” The key points to watch are how many Democratic crossover votes can be secured and whether Senate leaders actually set a floor vote schedule before August.