[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] A forecast says XRP could rise from $5 to as high as $15 over the long term. But it also warned the token could slide to $1.00 to $1.10 if it breaks below the lower end of a symmetrical triangle in the short term.

On May 18 (local time), blockchain outlet Cointelegraph reported that the market is watching both a long-term accumulation phase for XRP and short-term downside risk.

Crypto analyst Crypto Patel said the $1.00 to $0.70 range could be a long-term accumulation zone for XRP. He said the current sluggish price action and low retail interest resemble conditions just before a major breakout in late 2024.

A chart he presented showed XRP being pushed back into a green demand zone after failing to break resistance at $3.20 to $3.50. He called the current price a "massive opportunity" and set upside targets of $5, $10 and $15 if a cycle expansion similar to 2022 to 2024 repeats.

Support for the bullish view was linked to similarities with prior cycles. In the previous cycle, XRP formed a base for months around $0.32 to $0.40, then broke above a long-term downtrend line around $0.55 to $0.60 in November 2024. It then climbed past a $0.65 to $0.85 resistance zone and rose 835 percent over the following two months.

That rally reflected expectations of a shift in the policy environment. After Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president in November 2024, risk appetite increased across the crypto market, and market participants viewed the new administration as more friendly toward digital assets than the prior government.

In 2026, a Clarity bill that has made progress in the U.S. Senate is cited as a key catalyst. The bill aims to clarify U.S. market structure criteria distinguishing whether digital assets fall under securities rules or commodities rules. Jason Yanowitz, a host of the Blockworks podcast Empire, said XRP is among the altcoins that could enter a long-term bull market if the bill is enacted.

On-chain indicators also pointed to a rebound. Santiment said the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger was 48,453 on May 17, the highest since March 30. New addresses also hit 3,317, the highest since March 19. Earlier this week, the number of whale wallets increased, and whale accumulation of XRP was seen at record levels.

But the short-term chart does not support optimism alone. On XRP's daily chart, a symmetrical triangle pattern formed over several months, with lower highs and higher lows. It also showed that buying pressure is not strong enough to confirm a breakout after the price was pushed back again near the upper trend line.

If the lower trend line breaks, momentum could tilt bearish. Based on the chart, there is room for a drop to a $1.00 to $1.10 support zone, about 20 percent below the current price. XRP's upside scenario is being discussed as long-term accumulation, expectations of regulation and an on-chain rebound converge, but the immediate focus is whether it can hold technical support in the short term.

$XRP Between $1–$0.70 Looks like $XRP Before its Big Move. Quiet accumulation. No hype. Massive opportunity. 10x–15x potential from here. Targets: $5 → $10 → $15 Most people will miss it again. NFA & DYOR pic.twitter.com/Th0Xwj8fn1