XRP has stayed in a prolonged compression phase for years, and some market analysts view it not as a collapse but as a prelude to a major rally.

On May 14 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst CryptoLica argued that "XRP is not dead, it is building strength and may continue the most hated rally."

The key point is that the long-term support line still holds. In the 10-day chart presented by CryptoLica, XRP has defended an upward support trend line for nearly 10 years. On the upside, it repeatedly hit multiple resistance lines, trapping the price in a narrow range. CryptoLica said this compression structure has continued from the 2017 to 2018 bull market to now.

CryptoLica viewed the current zone as "compression, not a breakdown." The analyst said long-term selling pressure has been trapped inside a single structure, and because the structure has not fully broken down, the possibility of an upside breakout remains open. XRP has defended a key upward support line even in periods of deep corrections.

The upper resistance is layered. The top of the channel and the mid-channel resistance line have acted as zones where supply accumulated. XRP was blocked from further gains near $0.78 in September 2018, $1.41 in September 2021, around $3.40 in January 2025 and around $3.67 in July 2025, even after the January 2018 peak. A downward trend line that began at the January 2018 peak also acted as an important resistance. XRP broke above that line in November 2024 and then rebounded to the January and July 2025 highs.

The current phase is interpreted as a retest of that downtrend line. The price is stuck between support near the downtrend line and the channel's mid resistance. CryptoLica said a clear break above around $5, where resistance sits, could put XRP into a "massive parabolic expansion."

As the next target zone, CryptoLica pointed to an upward resistance band around $20. That implies upside potential of 1,298 percent from the current market price of $1.43. The top resistance line of the channel is above $38, which was also mentioned as a possible target. The figures are technical targets presented on the premise that the long-term structure holds.

The analysis also highlighted similarities with past XRP moves. From 2014 to 2017, XRP also moved sideways for a long period within a similar compression structure, before entering a strong expansion phase that led to the 2018 peak. CryptoLica said a similar pattern could be repeated this time.

It also presented supporting indicators. The Crypto Cycle Engine chart began to recover from an oversold zone around 44 and is now heading toward 60. CryptoLica said past cycles also saw strong XRP momentum follow such a reset.

Market sentiment remains mixed. Skepticism has grown due to the prolonged sideways move and repeated failures to break resistance. Still, observers say that because XRP has maintained a compressed pattern for years between major support and resistance, a tilt in the trend to one side could also amplify the price reaction.

THE MOST HATED RALLY IN CRYPTO MAY NOT BE OVER. XRP is not dead. It is compressed. Most people see a dead chart. I see years of pressure trapped inside one structure. Boredom removed attention. Disbelief removed confidence. Failed rallies removed impatience. That is usually… pic.twitter.com/yDyUW7BmFd