A 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the two-month chart has been presented as a key benchmark for XRP’s long-term bullish trend.

On May 14, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Egrag Crypto said whether XRP holds above this line is the dividing point between a continued bull market and a macro breakdown.

Market attention is focused on whether the long-term structure can hold, rather than short-term volatility. XRP hit an all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025 and then went through several pullbacks, but some analysis says the long-term uptrend structure has not yet been damaged. That is because it is trading above the 21-day EMA on the two-month chart and has maintained a multi-year pattern of rising lows.

The chart structure is also clear. XRP moved within a multi-year ascending triangle from 2017, with lows steadily rising, but repeatedly met resistance around $3.36. Egrag Crypto noted that this long-term compression phase resembles a pattern seen before cyclical expansion in major assets, as long as the key support line holds.

In the near term, regaining the $2.40 to $3.36 range was presented as the key task. Egrag Crypto said, "The real confirmation signal is reclaiming this range." Compared with the current XRP price of $1.43, that range is about 68 percent to 135 percent higher. If XRP regains this resistance zone, it would move closer to breaking through the multi-year upper resistance.

A downside scenario was also presented. Egrag Crypto put the chance that XRP may have bottomed at $1.12 in February at 40 percent to 50 percent. He put the chance of one more final capitulation selloff at 50 percent to 55 percent. In that case, the structure could retest rising support, and the lowest wick price formed on Binance, around $0.77, was mentioned again.

Upside targets depend on whether resistance is broken. Egrag Crypto said that if XRP breaks above the upper resistance, an expansion path to $7 to $13 is possible. Based on the current price, those levels are about 390 percent and 809 percent higher, respectively.

He set conditions for a more aggressive long-term outlook above $200. Egrag Crypto drew a line, saying this scenario cannot be justified by technical structure alone and that the broader cryptocurrency market’s liquidity cycle would also have to turn.

In the end, the analysis says XRP’s long-term direction depends on defending the 21-day EMA on the two-month chart and regaining the $2.40 to $3.36 resistance zone. If it reclaims that range, the likelihood of an upside breakout from the long-term compression structure could increase. If it falls below the 21-day EMA, it would become harder to rule out a further correction scenario. The market is watching whether XRP can hold key support and move into the next up leg.

#XRP’s Bull/Bear Line ( 2 Months TF) ⚖️: ️Most are focused on noise. The REAL signal is the 2-Month Time Frame + 21 EMA. ️As long as #XRP remains ABOVE the 2M 21 EMA, the MACRO bull structure is STILL intact. Below it? Official macro bear territory. ️Right now: ✅ Secular… pic.twitter.com/aKHBOkxYSo