[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis says SpaceX's initial public offering could become the biggest inflection point in the U.S. stock market rally. It says the IPO may serve as a symbolic event that reveals excessive optimism and leverage built up in the market, rather than a direct trigger for a bubble to burst.

On May 14 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that BloFin Research said in a recent report that SpaceX's listing could be "a moment that confirms how much expectation has already been priced into the market."

U.S. stocks are now being driven higher by AI-related names. The S&P 500 index topped 7,400 for the first time and has risen about 27 percent over the past 12 months. It has gained more than 15 percent in the past 6 weeks alone. The Nasdaq 100 also climbed about 40 percent over the same period. Gains, however, have been concentrated in a few mega-cap technology stocks. BloFin Research said the top 5 stocks accounted for about 75 percent of the S&P 500's rise during a stretch of record highs.

Stocks tied to the AI supply chain have also surged. SanDisk has risen more than 500 percent this year, while Western Digital and Micron are up about 190 percent and 170 percent, respectively. The report said the strength is difficult to explain by structural growth alone.

Against this backdrop, markets are focusing on a SpaceX IPO that is being discussed for the summer of 2026. Its valuation is already being cited at around $1 trillion. BloFin Research said SpaceX is an asset that combines AI, space, future infrastructure and the symbolism of Elon Musk all at once. It said that if an unlisted company starts to be seen as a de facto "must-own asset," risk appetite may have entered an overheated phase.

The report said early signs of market unease appeared first in the options market. In single-stock options, call option volume was nearly double put option volume, but in major index ETFs, put option trading was more dominant. That suggests speculative money is betting on gains in individual stocks, while institutional investors are strengthening defenses at the overall portfolio level.

The report warned that the current rally is being amplified not only by earnings and AI expectations but also by options-market structure, and that the same structure could magnify volatility in a downturn.

It also raised the possibility that the cryptocurrency market may have already priced in some risks. In October 2025, $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated over about 24 hours. BloFin Research said the crypto market has already gone through a leverage reset once, but U.S. stocks may still be building more leverage through the options market. It cited as support that while major U.S. indexes continue to post record highs, the crypto market has yet to recover to its previous level of overheating.

Two scenarios were presented for bitcoin. One is a summer liquidity-outflow scenario. It said risk-asset markets broadly could be shaken as a SpaceX IPO coincides with concerns about AI overheating. The other is a post-midterm-election correction scenario. The report said political motives could support stocks through the election in November, but leverage burdens could surface all at once afterward.

Both scenarios share a common factor: liquidity. BloFin Research stressed that "the real risk is not volatility itself, but liquidity." It said the SpaceX IPO may not be the direct cause of a bubble bursting, but it could prompt the market to recognise how much optimism has already been reflected in prices.

Another outlook said bitcoin could react first to such a shock and recover first. It said the crypto market trades 24 hours, is more volatile and tends to reflect prices earlier, making it the first among major risk assets to respond to stress. BloFin Research said a final wave of selling sparked by stock-market stress could be a painful period for crypto investors, but it could also become an optimal accumulation window ahead of the next cycle.