[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Shiba Inu (SHIB)'s future price depends on the Shibarium-based burn structure and whether its ecosystem expands, but its huge circulating supply of 589 trillion tokens is still cited as the biggest burden.

On May 12 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic said SHIB could trade between $0.000004 and $0.000018 in 2026. SHIB is currently priced at about $0.0000066, leaving a wide gap from the all-time high of $0.00008845 set in October 2021.

The outlet said SHIB is still considered one of the leading meme coins, but a price recovery would be difficult on a simple increase in trading volume alone. It said meaningful gains would require both real capital inflows and a reduction in supply.

It cited Shibarium, Shiba Inu's layer-2 network, as a key variable. Since its 2023 launch, Shibarium has processed more than 1.56 billion transactions in total and maintains a structure that converts part of network fees into SHIB for burning. The outlet called it a "steady but gradual deflation mechanism."

It also flagged that rising network activity has not translated into actual capital accumulation. Shibarium's total value locked (TVL) stood at about $179,000, while TVL for ShibaSwap, a decentralised exchange (DEX) in the ecosystem, was tallied at about $6.2 million. That means trading is active, but the scale of inflows itself is limited.

Some positive signals also emerged on supply and demand, it said. About 374 billion SHIB moved off exchanges, and exchange holdings fell to about 82 trillion tokens, it added. The outlet interpreted that as an increase in long-term holding. The number of SHIB holders neared 1.58 million, and in Japan, Rakuten Wallet was analysed as expanding SHIB accessibility as regional growth also progresses.

The outlet presented $0.000008 as its base-case price for 2026. It assumed a steady expansion of the ecosystem rather than a sharp surge. Its upper-case scenario of $0.000018 was seen as possible if increased Shibarium activity is supported at the same time by favourable market liquidity. It added that if bitcoin prices stabilise and risk appetite recovers, highly volatile altcoins such as SHIB could post larger gains.

For the medium- to long-term view, it cited technological advancement and expanded use cases as key variables. The outlet projected SHIB's expected price range at $0.000005 to $0.000028 in 2027, $0.000006 to $0.000035 in 2028 and $0.000008 to $0.000052 in 2030.

It also said forecasts point to stronger privacy features, possible layer-3 expansion and metaverse and artificial intelligence (AI) linked functions supporting long-term demand. It also mentioned the possibility that AI use based on TREAT, a token in the SHIB ecosystem, could contribute to higher trading volume and increased token burns.

Even extending the horizon to 2040, supply overhang remains a key constraint, it said. The projected 2040 range was presented at $0.000010 to $0.000095. It also cited an assumption that continued burns could push total supply below 500 trillion tokens, while noting that SHIB's position could weaken if faster new-technology networks or AI-focused blockchains emerge.

The outlet said projections in parts of the market for $0.1 or $1 are unlikely to be realistic. From current levels, reaching $0.1 would require a rise of more than about 1.51 million percent, pushing market capitalisation to about $58 trillion. That would exceed the market value of gold and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). It said a $1 scenario is even less realistic, requiring a rise of more than 15 million percent.

AI-based price outlooks also differed. Google Gemini presented ranges of $0.0000052 to $0.000027 in 2026 and $0.000015 to $0.00075 in 2030. xAI's Grok gave more conservative projections of $0.000004 to $0.000012 in 2026 and $0.000008 to $0.00005 in 2030.

In the end, the outlet said there is potential for a medium- to long-term rebound in SHIB, but that higher trading volume alone has limits. It said a price recovery would require greater real inflows, higher TVL and a meaningful reduction in supply. It added that if preference for meme coins weakens and competition intensifies, and macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, it would be difficult to rule out a prolonged sideways move.