XRP is moving within two Elliott Wave structures, and its future target could be limited to $14 or extend to $42 depending on the wave path, an analysis showed.

On May 11, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst CryptoinsightUK presented the scenario based on XRP's recent rebound.

XRP fell to as low as $1.34 on April 29 before rebounding to above $1.45. It is up 8.2 percent from its April low. It gained 6.13 percent last week, marking its biggest weekly rise in the past 2 months. It has corrected by about 1 percent so far this week, but is holding the $1.45 level.

The rebound has coincided with a broader rise in the cryptocurrency market. The overall market has added $200 billion in market capitalisation since its April low, and XRP has joined the move. CryptoinsightUK did not view XRP as following a single path. The analyst saw the current price sitting within two different Elliott Wave structures at the same time, and said the scale of gains could vary depending on which structure it follows.

The first scenario is a long-term wave structure formed after XRP rebounded from the June 2022 bear-market low. In this structure, Wave 1 ended around $0.93 in July 2023, and Wave 2 concluded at $0.3834 in July 2024. Wave 3 then rose to $2.9 in December 2024, and the current phase is interpreted as a Wave 4 correction. If this structure holds, XRP could enter Wave 5, an impulse wave, after the correction ends. The chart puts the Wave 5 target range at $12 to $14.5.

The second scenario starts over a much shorter period. It treats XRP's surge from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 in January 2025 as Wave 1, and the subsequent decline and correction through the present as Wave 2. In that case, a rebound after the current correction would be a Wave 3 rise, with a target around $14. It then suggests XRP could fall in a Wave 4 correction to a level slightly above $5, before a final Wave 5 could head toward $42.

In the short term, both scenarios point to the $12 to $14 range as a key target. The difference is whether that price zone is the final Wave 5 of the overall structure, or Wave 3 in a larger uptrend. CryptoinsightUK said that based on this structure, it is likely to reduce holdings once XRP reaches the $8 to $12 range.

In terms of market reaction, it has first been confirmed that XRP has regained the $1.45 level. The analysis is closer to a scenario that interprets price action through Elliott Wave theory. It remains unclear which structure the market will follow, and further moves are expected to show whether the $12 to $14 range is the final upside target or a midpoint in a larger bull run.

As a result, investors' attention is focused on whether XRP can finish the current correction and shift into a full-fledged rising wave. Since both Elliott Wave scenarios point to $12 to $14 as a medium-term target, future trading volume and whether key support levels hold are expected to determine the likelihood of reaching that target.

$XRP from an Elliot Wave theory perspective. I can personally see the potential for either of these two counts to be valid (they're structural and rough, not exact measures here I'm not an expert). For this reason I'll be deleveraging heavily around the $8-12 level, dependent… https://t.co/JM1YWIKwLQ pic.twitter.com/61LLBlFVGW