[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to later than previously expected, shifting it to December 2026 and March 2027.

On May 10 (local time), blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Goldman Sachs redrew its rate-cut path on the view that inflation in 2026 is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

A key backdrop is the pace of disinflation. Goldman Sachs expects core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to hover around 3 percent throughout 2026 due to the effects of passing through energy costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has previously projected core PCE would return to 2 percent in early 2027. If the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge falls more slowly, the case for rate cuts will inevitably weaken.

Goldman Sachs economists covering the United States expect monthly inflation data to cool further and employment indicators to weaken before any rate cuts. That means worries about slower growth alone would make it difficult for the Fed to change its policy stance. The outlook also ties in with the recent mood inside the Fed.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on April 29 held the benchmark rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The Fed at the time assessed economic conditions as stable in most regions. Still, the meeting produced dissent from 4 members, the most since 1992. That confirmed there are significant differences within the committee over the policy direction.

Lindsay Rosner (린지 로스너) of Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects a hawkish tilt could gain more traction at the June meeting. Rosner said the Fed could face pressure to remove its easing bias from its statement after the June meeting, and that would be a signal hawks are gaining the upper hand on the committee. That is why markets react sensitively to potential wording changes at the June FOMC.

This adjustment to the rate path also translates into a direct burden on the cryptocurrency market. If rate cuts are delayed, liquidity flowing into risk assets such as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) could shrink. CME FedWatch shows markets are pricing a 93.4 percent chance the Fed holds rates at the June 17 meeting.

Dollar strength is also a variable. Markets see a longer period of unchanged rates increasing the likelihood of a stronger dollar, which could pressure valuations across cryptocurrencies. Altcoins in particular tend to face heavier selling pressure when liquidity shrinks rapidly.

Still, bitcoin may have room to react differently from other assets. If energy-driven inflation pressures intensify, bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative could come back into focus. That suggests bitcoin and altcoins could diverge even in the same tightening environment.

Market participants now see upcoming PCE data and the June 17 FOMC decision as key variables for the next direction. If the Fed delivers more hawkish wording, pressure could increase in the third quarter on cryptocurrency positions with a strong speculative character. As a result, Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast is being taken not just as a change in the rate timetable, but as a signal for gauging liquidity conditions in the digital-asset market in the second half.