[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Institutional investors and research firms are sharply divided over long-term price forecasts for XRP from 2026 to 2030.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 6 that 2030 targets for XRP range from around $1 to $28, fueling both optimism and skepticism in the market.

The strongest optimism comes from forecasts that place weight on the possibility of greater institutional investment. Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 XRP target to $2.8 from $8, but maintained its view of a subsequent uptrend. The bank projected $7 in 2027, $12.6 in 2028, $19.6 in 2029 and $28 in 2030. A crypto research team led by Geoffrey Kendrick cut its initial outlook, citing near-term market weakness, but still left open the possibility of XRP rising above $10 in the next upcycle. It said that would depend on larger ETF inflows and rising institutional demand.

Bullish projections continued from other research firms. PricePrediction.net forecast XRP at $5.51 to $7.11 in 2026 and said it could reach as high as $20.92 in 2029. Telegaon also projected XRP could reach $16 to $20 by 2030. Yahoo Finance contributor Chris MacDonald and The Motley Fool also cited regulatory improvement and greater institutional adoption in mentioning the possibility of $10 in 2026.

Conservative forecasts are also significant. CoinCodex and Changelly projected XRP would generally trade in the $1 to $2 range in 2026 to 2027. DigitalCoinPrice was more bearish. It said XRP could fall to as low as $0.57 in 2026 and could remain around $1 even in 2030.

The wide split in outlooks reflects both current market conditions and structural variables. XRP shifted into a downtrend after reaching an all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025. Spot XRP ETFs logged cumulative net inflows of more than $1 billion after launching in November 2025, but the price rebound has been limited in 2026. XRP rose as high as $2.41 early this year but then fell back and is now trading around $1.4. That is about 23 percent lower than at the start of the year and more than 60 percent below its all-time high.

The market views ETF fund flows as the most important variable. The outlet said cumulative inflows into spot XRP ETFs have topped $1.3 billion to date and that rising inflows are one of the key indicators of price strength. It said continued institutional inflows could increase buying pressure.

Changes in the regulatory environment are also a key variable. Ripple received conditional approval in late 2025 for a U.S. national trust bank charter, and if final approval is granted it would be able to expand its business within the U.S. financial regulatory framework. A so-called Clarity bill in the U.S. Congress is also cited as a factor that could reduce uncertainty over crypto regulation. Approval delays or failure of the bill to pass could weigh on market sentiment.

Growth in Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD is also drawing attention. RLUSD reached a market capitalisation of about $1.3 billion within a year of its launch. Some forecasts say that if RLUSD expands into payment and remittance networks in markets where regulation is being set more quickly, such as Japan and South Korea, demand to use XRP as a bridge asset could rise. Many also say it remains unclear whether RLUSD’s growth will translate directly into XRP’s price.

Downside factors are also clear. A Finder panel cited XRP’s large circulating supply and ongoing escrow releases as concerns. It also pointed to stablecoins such as USDC and USDT already gaining influence in cross-border payments, and said wider adoption of SWIFT’s blockchain-based payment system could narrow XRP’s use cases.

The macroeconomic environment is another variable. If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates quickly, risk appetite could revive and support XRP. If risk-off conditions persist, such as a global economic slowdown or a sharp stock market fall, the broader crypto market could come under pressure.

Ultimately, XRP’s long-term outlook is split between positive factors such as ETF inflows, regulatory progress and expansion of the Ripple ecosystem, and negatives such as supply overhang, the expansion of competing payment networks and macroeconomic uncertainty. The market has begun to view actual institutional fund flows and the pace of payment network expansion as more important benchmarks than simple price targets.