As XRP retests a key long-term support zone, some market participants have raised the possibility it could rise to $12.

Cointelegraph said on May 7 that XRP is trading near the lower end of a multi-year rising channel, revisiting an area where major rebounds began in the past.

On a monthly chart, XRP has moved within an uptrend channel that has continued since 2014. The current price is close to the $1.30 to $1.40 zone where the channel’s lower trendline sits. That area has previously served as a starting point for sharp rallies. Market analyst Mikybull Crypto, citing this structure, forecast that "XRP could rise to $12." The $12 level aligns with the channel’s midline.

Momentum indicators are also supporting the rebound scenario. The monthly relative strength index (RSI) has cooled to a prior support area around 40 to 45. That zone also appeared before previous upswings began. Analyst JD also pointed to the same RSI zone as a signal of a "potential cycle bottom" for XRP.

A different technical setup also appears on the two-week chart. After breaking upward out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle pattern, XRP is now showing a pullback toward the breakout area. JD’s green target zone is in the $8 to $14 range. The view is that if XRP holds the current retest area, the upside could open up significantly.

Recent price action is also cited as a backdrop for the view. XRP has rebounded about 30 percent in recent weeks from around its February low of about $1.11. A recovery in risk appetite supported the bounce, and internal market factors added to it. XRP integration by Japan’s Rakuten Wallet broadened touchpoints in Japan, and XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $81.6 million in April. That was the strongest monthly inflow so far in 2026. XRP spot ETFs also saw inflows of $28.17 million in the first week of May.

Still, the bullish scenario is not confirmed. If sellers break the lower-channel support, the current bullish structure could be damaged. That support zone in particular overlaps with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.33. If XRP loses that level, market attention could shift to around $0.93, the 100-month EMA. That would imply a further drop of about 30 percent from current levels.

A similar sharp slide was also seen during the 2022 bear market. As a result, XRP’s short-term direction appears likely to depend on whether it can defend the $1.30 to $1.40 zone and the long-term moving-average support near $1.33. The bullish view remains in place, but whether it breaks the key support is emerging as a turning point for the next trend.

For me.. Green box in 2 years.. but lets see where BTC goes first