Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, could reach a market capitalisation of $300 billion in 2031, a forecast said.

Blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto said on Wednesday that Artemis CEO John Ma (존 마) released an open-source financial model for Coinbase and set out the valuation under a bull-case scenario.

The forecast hinges on viewing Coinbase not simply as a cryptocurrency exchange but as a key beneficiary of an artificial intelligence-driven financial structure. The model assumes that, through 2031, stablecoin supply expands, AI agent-based commerce revenue grows and the company shifts to a subscription-and-services-centred revenue structure at the same time.

The biggest assumption is expansion of the stablecoin market. Ma projected that total stablecoin supply will rise to $3 trillion by 2031. The figure follows the forecast path set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for 2030. The model assumes USD Coin (USDC) accounts for 30%. Coinbase is deeply involved in USDC distribution through a partnership with Circle.

AI agent-based commerce is another pillar of the bull case. Artemis estimated that AI agents will generate $7.5 trillion in annual spending in 2031. It forecast Coinbase will capture 1 basis point of that flow. Coinbase is currently involved with Cloudflare in operating the x402 protocol under the Linux Foundation.

The model also reflects a shift in the revenue structure. It assumes the share of subscription and services revenue rises to 65% in 2031 from about 40% of total revenue currently. That would reduce direct exposure to trading-volume swings and increase recurring fee-based revenue.

Ma said, "In the bull case, Coinbase posts about $23 billion in revenue and about $10 billion in net profit in 2031." He added, "Applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 implies a market capitalisation of about $300 billion, more than 6 times the current level."

The forecast also ties in with Coinbase's recent reorganisation. That week, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (브라이언 암스트롱) said the company will become a leaner and faster AI-native organisation as it cuts about 14% of its staff. Coinbase reduced decision-making steps and built an AI-native pod that manages multiple agents.

Armstrong told engineers to raise the share of AI-generated code to more than 50% of daily output. Coinbase also launched an agent wallet that handles machine-to-machine payments. The company's reorganisation and product direction overlap with assumptions in Ma's financial model.

Even so, there are many conditions for such a sixfold upside scenario to materialise. The stablecoin policy environment must remain favourable, and AI agent commerce must spread in practice. Whether USDC can maintain its market share amid new competitors is also a variable.

A bear-case scenario in the same model put Coinbase's enterprise value at about $70 billion. It highlights that Coinbase's long-term value could be driven more by the expansion of stablecoins and AI payments infrastructure than by exchange fees.