Bitcoin (BTC) could fall as far as $50,000 if it fails to break above the $84,000 area seen as a key resistance level, an analysis showed.

According to blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph on Tuesday, the market remains wary that bitcoin's recent rebound may amount to a technical bounce within a bearish cycle. Analysts in particular see the 200-day moving average near $84,000 as a key turning point.

Bitcoin is repeatedly testing around $82,000. Some in the market say whether it reclaims $84,000 matters more than the headline price level. Crypto investment firm TradingShot said bitcoin is nearing the 200-day simple moving average on the daily chart, and whether it can win that area back as support is key in separating bullish and bearish outcomes.

TradingShot said the current trend resembles the 2022 bear market. It said bitcoin then retested the 200-day moving average from below but failed to break through, and later fell further to set a new macro low.

In past bear markets, an analysis said a pivot zone formed at the prior low repeatedly turned into resistance later. TradingShot said the current market is also forming a similar "Stepping Stones" structure, and it viewed a renewed rejection at this area as increasing the likelihood that the bearish cycle continues.

Some in the market also see room for bitcoin to open down to the $50,000 area in that case. TradingShot added that the bearish scenario could be invalidated if a break above $84,000 is confirmed.

Whether lower support holds is also seen as a key variable. The market sees the bull market support band around $78,000 as an important defense area. The band comprises the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average.

Cryptic Trades also assessed in a recent analysis that this support band remains a key area. He said the medium- to long-term market structure could remain intact as long as bitcoin holds above $78,000 and $76,000, near the April 2025 low.

Bitcoin's near-term direction is seen hinging on whether it reclaims $84,000 on the upside and whether it defends $78,000 and $76,000 on the downside. If it fails to break above the 200-day moving average, the view that the bear market will be extended could gain traction. If a resistance break is confirmed, the $50,000 decline scenario could recede. The market's focus is less on the price number itself than on whether bitcoin flips key moving averages and past low zones into support or leaves them as resistance.