Bitcoin has recently shown signs of a rebound, but a view is emerging that the bear market is not over. Analysts say a pattern similar to past cycles may be repeating, raising the possibility that the current bounce could peak within weeks before turning back down.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 6 that cryptocurrency analyst and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said bitcoin's current price action resembles mid-bear-market rebound patterns seen in the past.

Cowen's core argument rests on repeating cycles. He said bitcoin regained key moving averages in the 2014, 2018 and 2019 cycles, rallied, and then returned to a downtrend. He said this rebound may follow the same path. "I still maintain a bear market perspective," Cowen said. "The current market structure is moving quite similarly to past cycles," he said.

He said the rebound could continue in the short term but is unlikely to last. "This rebound is likely to form a peak within the next few weeks and then be retraced," Cowen said. He pointed to the retracement zone as the bull-market support area that bitcoin has recently recovered.

Some in the market also argue this bearish scenario could be wrong. Bitcoin's performance this year is seen by some as relatively resilient compared with past mid-cycle periods. Bitcoin is currently about 10 percent lower than at the start of the year, and that is cited as better than the typical 30 to 35 percent drop seen in the past at the same point in time.

Cowen also acknowledged this cycle may not be exactly the same as in the past. "This peak formed amid indifference rather than overheated optimism," he said. He cited weaker-than-expected retail participation and altcoins that remained weak versus bitcoin during the rebound.

Even so, he said he still leans toward the historical pattern. In prior cycles, he said bitcoin rose above the bull-market support zone and then fell back, with the 200-day moving average acting as resistance.

"If my analysis is correct, it will look very clear later," Cowen said. "Conversely, even if it is wrong, when the market moves in a completely different direction it will likely be after it has already risen sufficiently from the low," he said. That is interpreted as meaning a defensive response is preferable to aggressive chase buying.

Another indicator he is watching is the interval between lows. In recent cycles, it took about 140 to 174 days for a new low to appear, but only about 88 days have passed since the last low, he argued. "It is only day 88 now," Cowen said. "No one can be sure what will happen in three months," he said.

He therefore left open the possibility that the current rebound could end within weeks, followed by another test of the bull-market support zone, with the next major low possibly forming around October.

The market is focusing on the point that this outlook raises questions about the sustainability of the rebound itself rather than simply predicting a price decline. A key point to watch is whether bitcoin extends gains in the coming weeks or returns to a support-test phase, the report said.