[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong] The World Health Organization has officially confirmed a cluster of hantavirus infections on a cruise ship, putting the cryptocurrency market on guard against the possibility of a replay of the sharp selloff seen in the early stages of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The prevailing view is that the market is not yet in a phase of excessive fear, but concerns are also emerging that volatility in risk assets could rise depending on additional deaths and whether human-to-human transmission occurs.

According to blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on Tuesday, the WHO said 7 infections occurred on the cruise ship MV Hondius, of which 3 people died and 1 is in critical condition. The WHO is keeping the overall risk level low, but it is not ruling out the possibility of limited person-to-person transmission in close-contact settings on board.

Hantavirus is a severe viral disease transmitted through the urine, droppings or saliva of infected rodents. Some types in the Americas can have a fatality rate of up to 50 percent, and there is still no approved vaccine or specific treatment. The WHO said it has not confirmed any signs of spread in land-based communities so far.

Market participants are reacting sensitively because some developments overlap with the early COVID-19 situation. When the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, global financial markets entered a sharp risk-off phase, and bitcoin saw what was known as “Black Thursday,” with more than half its value wiped out in a short period. Bitcoin fell to around $4,000, and the total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies also halved within days.

Assessments that bitcoin failed to play the role of “digital gold” at the time are also being mentioned again. Investors sold risk assets across the board to raise cash, and bitcoin also faced heavy selling pressure as a means of securing liquidity. The recovery later was fast. After the plunge, bitcoin recouped most of its losses in about a month and a half and entered a strong rebound trend.

Another variable is that the current market structure differs from 2020. Bitcoin has made significantly greater progress in mainstream adoption than before, with expanded inclusion in corporate treasury assets, approval of spot ETFs and inflows from institutional investors. As a result, even if the same shock occurs, the decline and the speed of recovery could differ from the past, according to some observers.

The market reaction remains limited so far. Some traders are wary of the possibility of wider spread, but many also say it is unlikely that hantavirus will turn into a global shock on the scale of COVID-19. The analysis in the market is that the key variables will ultimately be the scope of spread and the speed of the health authorities’ response, rather than the disease itself.

Experts see a strong possibility that if the situation ends as an on-board cruise-ship infection, the market impact will remain limited to short-term unease. If additional deaths and signs of land-based transmission are confirmed, volatility across risk assets, including bitcoin, could expand again, some forecasts say.