Bitcoin has topped $81,000 for the first time in about 3 months, but derivatives markets have yet to show clear signs of confidence that the rise will continue.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that bitcoin has risen about 7 percent over the past week and tried to move into the $82,000 range. Futures and options indicators showed investor caution persisted.

The first point to check is the futures market. Monthly bitcoin futures traded at a premium of about 1 percent annualised to the spot price. The neutral range is generally seen at 4 to 8 percent, and the current figure is well below that. This cautious mood has continued since late January, when bitcoin was trading at $90,000, and the latest rebound has not translated into strong buying conviction.

Options markets showed a similar trend. The delta skew indicator, which rises when professional investors are heavily concerned about downside risk, moved closer to the 6 percent neutral threshold but still remained in a mild bearish zone. That suggests whale investors and market makers are not strongly pricing in a sharp drop, but bullish conviction is also stuck.

The macro backdrop is sending mixed signals. Brent crude prices hovered near $110 a barrel, sustaining inflation worries, and investors seeking to hold euro zone government bonds also demanded higher yields. On the same day, the Nasdaq 100 index hit a record high. With risk appetite still alive, bitcoin may have benefited in part from that trend.

The issue is on-chain indicators. Bitcoin's daily network transfer value fell 54 percent from 3 months ago to $4.1 billion. The number of transfers also slid to near the lowest level in about 5 years. Bitcoin's price does not necessarily track only on-chain activity, but the indicators are viewed as a proxy for retail investors' interest and adoption. In contrast with the recent price rebound, it is read as a signal that retail demand has weakened.

In the market, a pause in purchases by Strategy was also cited at one point as a burden. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), temporarily stopped accumulating bitcoin ahead of its earnings report. The company maintained an aggressive pace of buying over the previous 4 weeks, but the market sees a possibility it could post a quarterly net loss due to the impact of bitcoin accounting at fair value. There was also a view that the pause may have caused excessive anxiety in the market.

By contrast, institutional flows leaned bullish. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $1.16 billion from last Friday through Monday. While macro slowdown concerns and weak on-chain activity weighed on derivatives sentiment, it suggests institutional demand is instead recovering.

The next point to watch is changes in derivatives positions. A lack of strong demand for leveraged upside bets, as at present, is a near-term burden, but if prices rise further, liquidation of short positions could turn into additional upward momentum. As the market tries to break above $82,000 after settling above $81,000, the next turning point is expected to be whether spot ETF inflows continue and whether the futures premium returns to the neutral range.