Asset manager VanEck forecast bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next 5 years.

Coinpost, a blockchain outlet, reported on May 7 that Matthew Sigel (매슈 시걸), head of digital assets research at VanEck, said this in a CNBC interview. Bitcoin was trading at about $81,000 at the time, and the forecast assumes a potential rise of about 12 times from the current price.

Sigel cited younger investors’ willingness to allocate assets to bitcoin and the Czech National Bank’s bitcoin purchase as key grounds. He also referred to how video games spread from a children-centered culture to all generations, and said bitcoin users would not easily leave the market. He added that very high volatility could accompany bitcoin’s path to $1 million.

This is not the first time a $1 million bitcoin forecast has been made. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said last month that if bitcoin’s value grows further as a hedge against geopolitical risk, reaching $1 million could be only the start of a price rise. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also cited regulatory clarity and institutional entry in August last year when he presented the possibility of $1 million by the end of 2030.

Expectations of expanding demand from the institutional financial system underpin these bullish forecasts. The Czech National Bank was mentioned as the first central bank to buy bitcoin as reserves. Continued inflows of institutional funds into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and a growing investor base viewing bitcoin as digital gold, were also cited.

Long-term forecasts from other institutions show a similar trend. Ark Invest presented $710,000 as a base-case scenario for 2030, and Standard Chartered Bank forecast $500,000 by the end of 2028. A long-term bullish view is spreading across the industry.

The Czech National Bank is also putting bitcoin at the center of discussions on reserve diversification. Governor Ales Michl (알레시 미흘) disclosed internal analysis at the Bitcoin 2026 event showing that allocating 1 percent of reserves to bitcoin would raise returns while leaving risk almost unchanged. The Czech National Bank has been running a bitcoin test portfolio since November 2025.

There are 2 points to watch. The first is whether other central banks, following the Czech National Bank, will adopt bitcoin as a reserve asset. The market also sees demographic shifts highlighted by Sigel as a key variable in whether they translate into actual asset allocation behavior.

Another analysis says bitcoin would need inflows from institutional investors and a stable regulatory environment to approach $1 million after surpassing its all-time high of about $126,000. The market is watching whether central bank demand, spot bitcoin ETF fund flows and regulatory clarity can support a long-term upside scenario.