[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] A claim has surfaced that the long-term probability of XRP rising above $100 is higher than 1 percent.

On May 5 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that crypto investor and analyst Patrick L. Riley directly challenged the cautious stance of former Ripple chief technology officer David Schwartz in a debate over XRP’s long-term price potential.

The debate began after Schwartz recently repeatedly voiced skepticism about extreme price targets for XRP and Ethereum. Schwartz viewed it as unlikely that XRP would reach $10,000 within the next 10 years. He said that if wealthy and rational investors seriously believed such an outcome, XRP would already have traded around $20.

Schwartz also mentioned his past misjudgment. He said he once saw the probability of Ethereum reaching about $2,368 as less than 1 percent, and that judgment led him to sell the Ethereum he held at about $1.05 per token. He raised an example in which he failed to accurately predict a long-term price path while cautioning against excessive market optimism.

Riley argued that his view differs when it comes to XRP. He saw the probability of XRP rising above $100 as “well above 1 percent.” He argued that current market expectations undervalue XRP’s long-term potential.

He presented long-term technical analysis as the basis. Riley said XRP has moved within an ascending channel since 2014. He said lows have steadily risen and the price structure has gradually expanded. He also pointed to repeated defenses of diagonal trend lines as evidence of a structural bullish pattern.

He focused in particular on a pattern in which price action compresses into a triangular range before a major surge. He said the pattern appeared in the 2018 cycle and was confirmed again in mid-2025. Riley said that if this structure holds, XRP could continue trading near the top of its long-term channel and show an exponential rise, which could result in the price heading toward $100.

Still, a rise from the current level of about $1.40 to $100 would require a gain of more than 7,000 percent. This figure shows how aggressive the outlook is. Riley’s claim is based on the premise that long-term structure holds rather than on short-term catalysts.

Riley also added a forecast from xAI’s artificial intelligence model Grok. Grok put the probability of XRP reaching $100 over the next 10 years, roughly by 2036, at about 20 percent. The model cited Schwartz’s earlier comment that payment costs could fall as XRP’s price rises and the possibility of expansion across the broader crypto market as positive factors.

Another forecasting platform, Telegaon, put the timing for XRP reaching $100 at between 2041 and 2050. Even with the same target price, the timing and probability of realization vary widely.

In the market, an opposing dynamic between optimism and realism continues. Riley, based on long-term chart structure, stressed the possibility of expanding highs, while Schwartz drew a line against excessive targets based on investor behavior and market price formation. The possibility of XRP reaching $100 remains uncertain, but the debate shows that standards for long-term price outlooks are split between technical structure and market reality.

The odds of $XRP hitting >$100 are far greater than 1%. https://t.co/axMhiPFS4S pic.twitter.com/vlXIhQHRBQ