Mobile fintech platform Robinhood’s first-quarter results missed market expectations due to weak cryptocurrency trading, sending its shares down nearly 12 percent. But Cathie Wood (캐시 우드) of Ark Invest and some Wall Street analysts view it as a temporary slowdown.

CoinDesk, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 30 that Robinhood turned weaker after its earnings release on April 28. Ark Invest bought about $39.7 million worth of shares the next day. Robinhood accounts for about 3 percent of Ark Invest’s portfolio. It is also among the top holdings across all 3 funds.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an overweight rating and a $110 price target. It said April stock and options volumes are near the highest monthly level this year and assessed recent trading activity as showing signs of stabilisation. It also judged the earnings miss was driven more by market conditions than by issues in the core business.

Compass Point also maintained a buy rating and slightly lowered its price target to $107. It said the recent market reaction is skewed toward past indicators, given the possibility of improved second-quarter results.

Bernstein maintained an outperform rating and a $130 price target. It said cryptocurrency prices have not fallen further since April and stock and options trading remains strong, adding that crypto trading is also showing signs of stabilisation.

However, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods warned transaction fee rates could continue to decline. The firm lowered its price target to $65 from $75 and kept a hold rating. It said fee-rate declines in crypto and options have continued into the second quarter and also lowered earnings estimates through 2028.

Expectations are also emerging for new revenue sources. Prediction markets are drawing attention on the back of growth in event-based contracts, product launches and global events. Cantor Fitzgerald said Robinhood’s in-development prediction market platform Rotera could contribute to future revenue and margin expansion.

The key question is whether the recent recovery in trading activity continues. If it persists, the timing of a rebound in Robinhood’s growth could come sooner than expected. If pressure on trading revenue continues, the burden could last through the second half of this year. Robinhood shares rose about 3 percent on the day, but are down about 37 percent year-to-date. Coinbase also gained about 3 percent but is down about 19 percent since the start of the year.

The core of the earnings weakness was slower crypto trading, but the market’s focus is quickly shifting to other revenue pillars such as stock and options trading and prediction markets. It is becoming clear that whether Robinhood recovers depends less on the near-term earnings hit than on trading activity normalising and the potential to monetise new businesses.