[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Solana has fallen about 71 percent from its 2025 all-time high and has entered a range on on-chain indicators that previously saw sharp rebounds.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that Fidelity Digital Assets said in its signal report for the second quarter of 2026 that Solana's net unrealised profit and loss (NUPL) fell to -0.67.

The reading coincides with Solana's slide of about 71 percent from its 2025 all-time high (ATH). Fidelity calculated that Solana's NUPL score plunged 148 percent to -0.67 from -0.27 during the first quarter of 2026, while the price fell 33 percent over the same period. That stretch was classified as a "capitulation" zone, in which investors cannot stomach losses and rush to sell.

Fidelity said it was too early to conclude a bottom had formed. The report said, "There are early signs of stabilisation, but downside risk remains, and we cannot rule out the formation of a new low." NUPL rebounded 29 percent from an early February low of -0.94, but Fidelity judged that the rebound alone cannot confirm a trend reversal.

Attention is also on historical return data. Fidelity said periods when Solana's NUPL traded around levels similar to the current -0.67 coincided with a median 1-year return of 516 percent. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at the same level was 62 percent. That is read as a signal that an extreme loss zone could later become a starting point for a sharp rebound.

But Fidelity cautioned against generalising the figures. It said the forward 1-year return data cover only 10 cases, and the 3-year data only 6 cases, leaving the sample very small.

Fidelity said the data show both Solana's short trading history and the extremity of the current indicator reading. It also said the correlation between current NUPL and future returns was weak or lacked consistency, at 0 for the 1-year horizon and -0.16 for the 3-year horizon.

Network activity expanded even as prices weakened. Monthly active addresses rose 50 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and new addresses increased 35 percent. Fidelity said, "Even as asset prices fell, Solana usage surged," and assessed that users were actively transacting even in a volatile environment.

Stablecoin flows also held firm. The 30-day average transfer amount during the quarter rose about 8 percent to $7.2 billion. Fidelity interpreted the widening gap between price action and usage as indicating a user base that is stronger and less sensitive to business cycles. It said this suggests Solana may be moving away from a memecoin-centred image toward more mainstream and sustainable financial activity.

The report's key points can be summarised in two. On on-chain profit-and-loss indicators alone, Solana has entered a range that previously saw sharp rebounds. But the sample is small and the correlation with forward returns is weak, making it difficult to judge the chances of a recovery. In this situation, the market focus is not only on whether prices fall further but also on whether network expansion can continue while remaining detached from price action.