[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP is moving sideways near $1.40 in late April, with whether it breaks above $1.50 emerging as a key variable that could divide May’s trend.

On April 29 (all times local), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that XRP’s daily chart formed a cup-and-handle pattern targeting $1.70, but on-chain indicators simultaneously showed overheating warnings.

A key indicator the market is watching is the network value-to-transactions ratio (NVT). XRP’s NVT ratio rose to 1,076 on April 29, the highest since October 2025. Given that the NVT ratio stayed mostly below 700 during the prior sharp-rise phase over the same period, it suggests a stronger overheating signal. In the past, such extreme readings have in some cases led to short-term corrections after rallies that were not sufficiently supported by trading volume.

Another analysis said easing bearish signals would require the NVT ratio to fall below 300 and daily trading volume to rise again. By contrast, the number of whale transactions of $100,000 or more and exchange inflows held steady without major changes since February 2026. That also confirmed it is difficult to say fresh large-scale flows have entered the market.

Looking only at the technical trend, room for gains remains. On the weekly XRP/USDT chart, XRP is holding the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.17. The price has stabilised between $1.30 and $1.45 since February and is forming a narrow accumulation range. Weekly trading volume continues to fall.

Still, a bullish reversal has not been confirmed. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) is rising gradually but remains below a downtrend line that has held since the December 2025 peak. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) has formed 3 green bars on a weekly basis and is near a bullish crossover. For this reason, if the weekly close finishes above $1.50, the probability of breaking the next resistance increases, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 could emerge as a direct target.

On the daily chart, the bullish scenario was presented more specifically. The measured target of the cup-and-handle pattern is near $1.70, above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.61.

XRP is trading around $1.40 within the handle zone, with key support cited at $1.30 and resistance at $1.50. The daily MACD and RSI are tracking near neutral, while volume continues to decline. Another analysis said this combination often appears when a directional break is imminent rather than a range-bound move continuing.

Upper and lower thresholds are also relatively clear. If the daily close cleanly moves above $1.50, it opens room for an additional rise of about 16 percent to $1.70. If it slips below $1.30, the cup-and-handle pattern becomes invalid and $1.17 could reopen as the next support level.

External market variables also remain. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is scheduled to hold a roundtable on May 3 related to the CLARITY bill. The event was cited as a macro catalyst that could ease the standoff surrounding XRP. Separately, inflows into XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in April totalled $75 million. Continued inflows, together with the technical compression zone, were cited as variables that could affect May’s direction.

Ultimately, the XRP market in May is expected to be a zone where a push toward $1.70 through a break above $1.50 confronts the possibility of a correction driven by on-chain overheating signals. Whether the uptrend continues or shifts to a retest of support at $1.17 depends on a recovery in volume and confirmation of external catalysts.