[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin closed weekly trading above its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2025. Market attention is focused on whether it can reclaim $80,000 and on key variables this week.

On April 27 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin failed to retake $80,000. It still delivered a technically meaningful signal by closing above a key resistance line on the weekly chart.

On TradingView’s bitcoin-dollar chart, the 21-week EMA has acted as resistance since October last year. At the time, bitcoin was trading near $115,000, and this week’s close was the first time it moved back above that resistance. Together with the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), now around $76,550, this zone forms the upper boundary of bitcoin’s bull-market support range.

Markets see this signal as a gauge of whether the downtrend may be ending. Market analyst Rekt Capital previously pointed out that if bitcoin fails to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support, the door could open to a retest of the $73,000 support level. That would mean downside pressure could build again if the level fails to hold even if a short-term rebound continues.

Short-term moves remain mixed. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said bitcoin’s upward momentum has been strong recently, but key price levels still remain. He analysed that a break above $79,000 could open room for a rise toward $100,000. He added that if there is no clear breakout at $79,000, the price could move sideways for a period until a resistance retest.

Liquidations were also cited as a factor that could increase near-term volatility. CoinGlass data showed that immediately after the weekly close, bitcoin first cleared short positions above $79,000 and then fell quickly, liquidating newly added long positions as well. CrypNuevo forecast that the price could first absorb overhead liquidity and then move down to lower liquidity in the mid-$70,000 range. He said both $70,000 and $80,000 are zones where substantial potential liquidations have built up.

The macro environment is also a key variable this week. Markets are not yet certain about the trajectory of a war between the United States and Iran, but risk appetite showed some recovery as Iran offered proposals for negotiations. Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter assessed that risk appetite in markets is rising quickly as bitcoin approaches $79,500.

A U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision, a news conference by Chair Jerome Powell and releases of inflation indicators watched by the Fed are also scheduled in quick succession. With concerns lingering that war-related factors could push up inflation pressure in the United States again, this week’s macro events could directly affect bitcoin’s short-term direction.

On-chain indicators also produced an assessment that institutional investor demand is supporting the downside. CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnchain assessed that large investors did not sell bitcoin during the 2026 bear-market process and that fear in the derivatives market did not carry much significance. He said Feb. 5 was when this bear market’s structural bottom was firmed, explaining that the gap between the spot price and realised price was only 1.34 percent at the time. He judged that a significant portion of low-conviction investors exited during a sharp drop to around $60,000 in early February, followed by a recovery.

Economic indicators were also presented as a medium- to long-term point to watch. An analysis said a favourable environment could form for cryptocurrencies and risk assets after the U.S. purchasing managers index (PMI) recently entered expansion for the first time since 2022. Analyst Matthew Hyland said the typical four-year cycle expected by the market may not operate as-is, citing the PMI expansion signal and more than 10 other indicators. He leaned toward the possibility that bitcoin may form a higher low around $60,000 rather than break below the February low again.

Ultimately, market focus is on whether the recovery of the 21-week EMA will be the starting point for a trend reversal, or whether the failed push above $80,000 will lead to a correction that tests liquidity around $73,000 and the $70,000 range again. Bitcoin’s direction this week is expected to be determined by whether it breaks technical resistance, along with Fed events, war variables and whether institutional buying continues.

#BTC Bitcoin continues to resist from the 21-week EMA (green) Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support... Then this EMA could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/H0MXzjmtoN pic.twitter.com/W5frX8kcHx