Wall Street is watching quantum computing as a next-generation computing investment, but financial firms differ in their assessment of when it can be put to use. Analysts say firms share a view of the technology's potential, but there are clear gaps over how long commercialisation will take and what practical benefits it can deliver.

On April 26, blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan reported that Goldman Sachs once experimented with applying quantum computing to asset management but did not confirm clear results. JPMorgan Chase, in contrast, is keeping research staff and continuing a long-term approach.

Goldman Sachs formed a small group of scientists about 3 years ago and, with Amazon, ran tests on whether quantum computing could help improve returns for high-net-worth client portfolios. The results were sceptical. It concluded the algorithm could take "millions of years" to complete tasks, and that building a reliable system would require at least 8 million logical qubits. Current technology remains below 100 qubits. Goldman Sachs later dismantled most of the related organisation as part of cost-cutting.

JPMorgan has taken a longer-term approach. It is maintaining more than 50 researchers, including physicists, computer scientists and mathematicians, and continuing research across areas such as optimisation, machine learning and cryptography. Within finance, some view quantum computing as a core investment theme after AI, while others say it is still too early for real business application.

In the market, time is cited as a bigger variable than the technology itself. Quantum computers use physical phenomena such as superposition and entanglement and have the potential to greatly outperform classical computers in certain calculations. Expectations include uses in problems that are difficult for existing computing, such as drug research, machine learning and financial risk modelling. Still, a prevailing view is that meaningful systems remain years away.

Even so, investment expectations are already reflected in some companies. Canada-based startup Xanadu Quantum Technologies drew attention as its stock surged after listing. The company has presented a plan to build an early quantum data centre by 2030.

Big Tech is also moving to expand the ecosystem. Nvidia recently released an open-source AI model for research support, widening the foundation for quantum computing research.

Quantum computing is sensitive for financial markets because it also links directly to cryptocurrency security. Shor's algorithm, proposed by Peter Shor in 1994, is cited as the theoretical basis for disabling certain cryptographic systems. Bitcoin security has held so far because no quantum computer has emerged with stable qubits sufficient to run it.

Estimates for the resources required are gradually falling. In research last month, Google lowered the required number of physical qubits, previously estimated at the level of several million, to less than 500,000. It also raised the possibility of cutting attack time by preparing some calculations in advance.

Research suggests that under certain conditions it could take about 9 minutes to compute a private key. That is similar to Bitcoin's average block creation time of 10 minutes, meaning an attacker would have time to pre-emptively submit competing transactions.

A bigger problem is that a significant number of wallets already have exposed public keys. About 6.9 million bitcoins are stored in such wallets on the blockchain, about one-third of the total supply. Those assets could become potential targets even if they are not being traded.

Ultimately, the differing views in finance on quantum computing stem from the gap between potential and timing. Analysts say the profit opportunity is clear, but the timing for commercialisation and the realisation of security threats is uncertain, so the pace of investment differs by institution.