Bitcoin's price rise is being driven by the futures market, while real demand in the spot market has yet to recover, an analysis showed.

On April 27, blockchain media outlet Coinpost reported that Ki Young Ju (주기영), CEO of on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, struck a cautious tone on bitcoin's current uptrend.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, he said, "Open interest is rising in the bitcoin market, but apparent on-chain demand remains net negative." He added that even if bitcoin prices are rising, it is hard to say the demand structure is improving as well.

He said a recovery in spot-market demand had not been confirmed even though money continues to flow into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, purchases through ETF management channels including BlackRock continue, and Strategy has kept buying bitcoin. That means it is difficult to conclude spot demand is rebounding based only on the fact that institutional money is entering the market.

A chart released by CryptoQuant also showed the same trend. As of April 2026, futures demand appeared to recover into positive territory, while spot demand remained in negative territory. Prices rebounded, but futures and spot were moving in opposite directions, it said.

Ki said it was still difficult to view the market as being in a strong recovery phase even compared with past cycles. He explained that the end of bear markets has historically been confirmed when both spot demand and futures demand recover together. He said that condition has not been met yet.

He also warned that a futures-led rise could reflect more short-term speculative demand. Ki said a futures-focused price rebound risks lacking staying power. He said upward momentum could weaken if spot-based buying does not follow.

The bitcoin market has become more complex in how prices are formed since U.S. ETF approval. Institutional investor inflows have expanded, but spot real demand shown by on-chain indicators and derivatives market flows are not moving in the same direction. Market participants therefore need to look not only at the price itself but also at whether futures demand and spot demand are recovering together.

This assessment shows that, separate from market expectations around bitcoin's recent rebound, investors need to distinguish where actual demand is occurring. Even if ETF inflows and corporate buying continue, whether bitcoin's uptrend is stable is expected to remain a key point to watch as long as spot demand stays in negative territory.

Bitcoin is currently futures-driven. Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys. Historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover. pic.twitter.com/HcCjBQTniL