Bitcoin has recently risen, but an analysis says it may fail to break back above $80,000 as signals of slowing U.S. institutional demand overlap.

On April 27, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin at one point traded at $79,098 on an 8-hour chart, rising to near the top of an ascending channel that has continued since late February.

On the surface, the upward trend appeared intact, but internal market indicators pointed in a different direction. Bitcoin touched the same resistance line on April 22 but failed to break through and then pulled back, before rebounding again into the same area this time. From April 14 to 27, price formed higher highs, while the relative strength index was poised to form a lower high. If the next 8-hour indicator closes lower than the current bar, a bearish divergence will be confirmed.

The Coinbase premium index, which reflects U.S. buying interest, was also cited as a bearish signal. The index reflects the Bitcoin price gap between Coinbase and other exchanges. It fell to 0.020 on April 27 from 0.038 during the breakout attempt on April 22. That suggests U.S. buying interest declined even as price rose back to resistance.

A similar pattern appeared in mid-month. From April 14 to 16, the Coinbase premium dropped to 0.011 from 0.064, but Bitcoin kept climbing. After holding on for one more day, price fell on April 17 from $77,089 to $73,820 in the next trading range. The explanation was that the Coinbase premium moved like a leading indicator, and the current stretch resembles that pattern.

In the futures market, momentum to drive an upside breakout also appeared to have weakened. On April 22, open interest stood at $34.02 billion and the funding rate posted a sharply negative reading of -0.021 percent. Short positions had accumulated heavily, but even then a short squeeze did not occur strongly and the breakout attempt ended in failure. Open interest has now fallen to $32.89 billion, with $1.13 billion in positions unwound. The funding rate also narrowed to -0.002 percent. That suggests short-covering pressure needed to break above $79,510 has weakened, removing a significant part of the key catalyst for an upside breakout.

The price level market participants are watching most closely for now is $79,510. If an 8-hour candle clearly closes above that price, a breakout is confirmed, and $80,000 was presented as the next upper target. If only an upper wick is left or the daily closing price fails to rise above resistance, the possibility of a pullback remains.

On the downside, $76,074 was presented as a first support area. If that level breaks, $73,948 and $72,230 were cited as the next support lines. On a daily basis, a key support is $70,512, which overlaps with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area. If that price breaks, the structure of the ascending channel that has continued since late February could be significantly weakened.

Ultimately, this Bitcoin rebound is not being sufficiently supported by demand and derivatives indicators, unlike the chart's attempt to break through resistance. With slowing U.S. buying interest and weakening short-squeeze momentum confirmed even as price nears resistance, the market has entered a phase of watching whether it can establish itself above $79,510 as a turning point.