Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded more than 10 percent over the past month and risen above the $79,000 level, but internal market indicators are also pointing to the possibility of a short-term correction.

On April 23, BeInCrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported that bitcoin briefly broke above $79,000 in intraday trading, marking its highest level since early February. It later held the $78,000 level, up 2.54 percent on the day. Still, analysis suggests whether the uptrend continues depends on whether additional demand flows in.

The market is watching 3 warning signals. They are a rise centered on the futures market, expanding profit-taking by short-term holders, and an approach to major resistance levels.

Julio Moreno (훌리오 모레노), head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that the rebound is heavily reliant on perpetual futures trading, while spot demand remains weak. "The pace of the decline in spot demand has slowed, but structurally it is still fragile," he said. "If profit-taking and weak demand overlap, correction risks could increase," he added. This pattern is assessed as similar to January, when bitcoin formed a peak near $98,000 and then plunged sharply.

On-chain indicators also suggest increasing selling pressure. Glassnode said the 24-hour simple moving average of realized profits by short-term holders rose to $4.4 million per hour. That is about 3 times the baseline of $1.5 million seen during localized peak zones this year. Glassnode analyzed that "without meaningful new demand, it will be difficult to absorb this supply, and a price pullback could occur."

Profitability by price band is also cited as a burden factor. Bitcoin has recently risen back above the average purchase price for short-term holders (1 to 3 months), formed at about $74,300. As a result, investors who bought in the $60,000 to $70,000 range have moved into profit territory, increasing the incentive to take profits.

Bitcoin also broke above the "True Market Mean" of about $78,100. This is interpreted as a positive signal, but it also suggests the possibility of short-term overheating. The next major resistance zone is presented at about $80,500, which overlaps with the average purchase price for short-term holders. If it breaks above that level, more than 54 percent of recent buyers will enter profit territory.

Glassnode assessed that this structure increases the likelihood of forming a short-term peak. It said breaking above the True Market Mean is positive, but caution is needed because the likelihood of a localized peak forming in the short term is high.

Ultimately, the future direction depends on new buying. For the rebound to continue, inflows into the spot market, rather than the futures market, need to absorb profit-taking supply. If it fails to do so, analysis suggests bitcoin could repeat a pattern of pulling back again after breaking above $79,000.