Bitcoin's $80,000 level has emerged as a key pivot that could determine the next direction.

On April 24, CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported that the average purchase prices of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and short-term whale holders are concentrated in this range. That has raised the possibility that selling pressure could increase near $80,000.

MorenoDV_, a registered analyst at CryptoQuant, analysed that the realised price for ETF investors is about $76,400, nearly the same as the current spot price. The realised price for short-term whale holders is about $79,600, slightly above recent price levels. With both groups nearing break-even at the same time, the battle around $80,000 was identified as a threshold zone that will shape the next trend.

The background to the selling pressure is also clear. ETF investors stayed in unrealised loss territory for about three months after Jan. 30. Unrealised losses for short-term whale holders stand at $4.3 billion, and $9.4 billion on a 30-day average basis. MorenoDV_ cited an instance in which short-term whales that regained break-even when bitcoin neared $95,000 on Jan. 15 moved in unison to take profits.

On the other hand, on the supply and demand side, signs of shrinking supply also appeared. Analyst Sunny Moum noted that bitcoin balances on exchanges are declining on both an annual and monthly basis. He analysed that market circulating supply is shrinking as institutional investors expand buying channels, including BlackRock's IBIT, Strategy, Morgan Stanley's MSBT, Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs.

Glassnode said in a weekly report that bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean of $78,100. Still, above that remains $80,100, the average acquisition cost for short-term holders, and it judged that even in past bearish phases it was rare to clear that level in one move.

A temperature gap between spot demand and derivatives market flows is also continuing. Bitcoin regained $78,000 on the back of a resumption of spot ETF inflows and a recovery in spot demand, but short-selling dominance is continuing in derivatives markets. The share of unrealised profits among short-term holders tends to see profit-taking sell orders concentrate when it exceeds 54 percent, and the current indicator is nearing that level, it explained.

Spot ETF flows, meanwhile, have turned to net inflows on a seven-day moving average basis, and cumulative volume delta has also shifted to buyer dominance across major exchanges. However, the outlet reported that buying was led by Binance, while Coinbase was relatively weak.