Bitcoin has climbed above $78,000, with the $78,200 and $79,200 ranges emerging as key resistance levels that could determine short-term direction.

On April 22, Coindesk reported that bitcoin, after hitting a low near $60,000 on Feb. 6, moved sideways for about 75 days and has again approached an on-chain price level seen as important.

In and outside the market, attention is first focused on the real market mean price around $78,200. Tracked by on-chain analytics firm Checkonchain, it shows the average acquisition price of coins actually circulating in the market, excluding lost or long-dormant coins. As it is close to the collective cost basis of investors actively participating in the market, it is used as a yardstick to gauge how much selling pressure could emerge when bitcoin reaches this range.

Checkonchain explained that the indicator filters out lost coins, dormant coins and economically inactive coins. What remains is the cost basis of participants actually in the market, meaning it more precisely shows the point where actual selling pressure is concentrated.

Slightly above that, at $79,200, sits the short-term holder realized price. This is the average acquisition price for investors with a holding period of less than 155 days. As short-term holders tend to react more sensitively to price swings, selling pressure can increase when the spot price is below their average entry price. Bitcoin's spot price has not yet fully regained their average acquisition price, leaving short-term holders in a “slight loss” state.

That price level has also acted as resistance in the past. In mid-January, bitcoin tested the short-term holder realized price around $98,000 but failed to break above it. If it fails to push through the same range again, the recent box-range move could last longer. If it clears the resistance level in a stable way, both indicators could turn into support and the upward move could strengthen.

The key is not a simple price break but whether it settles above the range. If bitcoin regains $78,200 and $79,200 in succession, it could signal a departure from the sideways market that has persisted for the past 75 days. If it fails to recover those levels, downward pressure could grow again, leaving short-term holders’ break-even point as a key variable in this range.