Bitcoin has retreated again near $78,000, confirming resistance at a short-term peak. The market is watching the possibility of a change in direction for bitcoin at the top of a rising parallel channel that has held for the past 75 days.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain outlet, reported on Monday that bitcoin failed to break above $78,000 early this week and traded around $75,400. On the daily chart, it first broke above a downtrend line on April 13 that had extended from a peak of $126,195 on Oct. 12 last year, but it then immediately hit resistance at the top of the rising channel.

Some analysts say bitcoin must hold the $74,000 to $76,000 zone to maintain its current structure. If that zone breaks, the next support was presented as a downtrend line near $70,000, followed by a demand zone of $64,000 to $66,000.

Short-term indicators are leaning bearish. On the 4-hour chart, a bearish divergence appeared in which the relative strength index (RSI) fell even as the price made higher highs. It signals weakening momentum beneath the uptrend. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has also dropped below the signal line and is attempting to enter negative territory. Some observers say a break below $74,500 could confirm a shift in short-term momentum.

The daily RSI has also entered a triangular consolidation range. After an overbought peak in October last year, highs in January and earlier this month gradually declined, while a support line formed after a sharp drop in February has been rising. If this triangle opens upward, it would signal an extension of the rise, but if it falls below the rising support line, the medium-term trend could tilt bearish.

The market has also produced an analysis that this price area is the third resistance zone over the past 8 months. Analyst ColdBloodedShiller grouped around $116,000 in October last year, around $96,000 in January this year and around $76,000 now as the same upper resistance band in a chart posted on X, formerly Twitter. He assessed the current zone as the most favorable short area in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. He added that an upside break, if achieved, could lead to the biggest market change among the patterns seen over the past 12 months.

A variable is institutional money. Strategy, the company with the largest bitcoin holdings, bought about $2.54 billion worth of bitcoin between April 13 and 19. The average purchase price was about $74,395, and if real demand continues to emerge at this price level, the repeated upper-resistance pattern could weaken.

BBWP, a volatility gauge, has come close to a cycle low. It means the market is in a zone where a strong directional move could emerge after volatility compresses. As a result, the next 3 to 5 daily candles are more likely to determine which scenario is dominant: a breakout of the rising channel or confirmation of a third resistance.

A key point in this move is that price resistance and weakening momentum signals have appeared at the same time. With spot demand such as Strategy's large-scale buying also in play, the tug of war between short-term technical signals and actual buying power has become clearer.