Bitcoin may come under near-term downside pressure as global liquidity contracts, an outlook showed. Over the medium to long term, an analysis said, there remains room for a rebound depending on policy responses and changes in the liquidity environment.

On April 20, blockchain media outlet Coindesk reported that Russell Thompson (러셀 톰프슨), chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hilbert Group, assessed that overall liquidity across financial markets is likely to shrink by about 20 to 25 percent further. He said short-term signs of stability have appeared due to some institutional changes, but judged that broader tightening is under way across the market.

Thompson said the liquidity backdrop could weigh on bitcoin. He said that even if geopolitical risks in the Middle East ease, it would not be easy for the rise in risk assets to continue for an extended period. "If liquidity is not supplied from outside, risk assets cannot keep rising," he said.

He highlighted U.S. policy responses as a key variable. Thompson presented as major scenarios an overhaul of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules by U.S. policymakers, a reduction in the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA), and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. He said the Treasury General Account is an important variable because it can directly increase or reduce market liquidity depending on whether funds are deployed. When the Treasury reduces the balance, liquidity is supplied to markets, while liquidity is absorbed when funds are accumulated.

He said markets tend to focus their interpretation of liquidity sources only on the Fed, but the Treasury also has strong influence in reality. Based on past policy experience, he said, the possibility that the Treasury could move actively to adjust liquidity cannot be ruled out.

Bitcoin has seen severe volatility over the past 6 months. After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, it stayed on a downward trend and fell to around $63,000 in February 2026. At the time, demand weakened as ETF outflows, tighter financial conditions and expanding risk aversion hit simultaneously. In some stretches, bitcoin also underperformed stocks.

Bitcoin is now trading near $75,000 and has moved out of its sharp-slide phase, but the gap from its peak remains large. The market's main focus has also shifted from the overheated sentiment of late 2025 to macro liquidity, policy direction and changes in investor positioning.

Still, the medium-term outlook was presented as relatively positive. Thompson said that if clearer crypto regulation coincides with a disinflation environment, liquidity provision such as an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet could resume faster than expected. In that case, he forecast that bitcoin could reach a significantly higher level than now by year-end.

The macro backdrop was also cited as a factor that could support that scenario. Thompson said rising oil prices could induce an economic slowdown, and if the labour market weakens and private credit stress grows, disinflation pressure could intensify. That could ultimately lead to an easing of monetary and fiscal policy.

Over the long term, he put the liquidity bottom around 2027. Thompson said that period could also coincide with the formation of a new bitcoin all-time high. He assessed that bitcoin markets have entered a phase of seeking direction amid opposing currents of tightening pressure in the near term and a liquidity recovery over the medium to long term.