Accumulation by long-term bitcoin holders has increased by more than 10 percent over the past three trading days, pushing the market into a phase of again testing the possibility of breaking above $90,000.

On April 20 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that bitcoin confirmed resistance near $78,380 last week and is trading around the $76,000 level.

The key is spot demand, not derivatives. Bitcoin rose about 21 percent from a March 29 low to an April 17 high, then moved within a downward parallel channel to form a typical bull flag pattern. But its two recent attempts to break higher were both blocked by resistance. In the April 20 attempt, a long upper wick formed, showing buying momentum failed to sustain strength in the resistance zone.

Trading volume also failed to support a strong breakout signal. That was because volume in buying-dominant sections within the flag was weaker than in earlier selling-dominant sections. The pattern remains intact, but conviction needed for the first breakout attempt is still lacking.

The derivatives market has instead appeared to erase direction. After the April 17 high, bitcoin open interest fell to $27.44 billion from $30.46 billion, a decline of about 10 percent. Over the same period, funding rates moved from -0.014 percent to -0.002 percent, nearing zero. That looks more like a reset than a bet to either side in the derivatives market.

Long-term holders, by contrast, increased accumulation. Glassnode's 'Hodler Net Position Change' indicator rose to 36,482 BTC on April 19 from 32,942 BTC on April 17, up 10.75 percent over three trading days.

Recent selling was also confirmed through on-chain indicators. Under the 'HODL Waves' measure, which segments circulating supply by wallet holding period, the share held by the one-week to one-month cohort fell to 2.781 percent on April 19 from about 4 percent on April 9. This is interpreted as short-term speculative buyers who entered the recent upswing taking profits, with long-term holders absorbing that supply.

This flow can be summed up as a shift from weak hands to strong hands. An analysis says the spot market is showing supply-demand changes that the derivatives market does not explain, and that leverage staying at a neutral level is also because spot buying is leading.

In the short term, $75,190 was presented as a watershed level. This price is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement based on the rise from $64,869 to $78,379. Bitcoin tested this level on April 20 but slipped back to confirm resistance. Calculations show that if it posts a daily close above $75,190, the bull flag could resolve to the upside and open the way to $90,841, about 21 percent additional upside from current levels.

If an upside break fails again, the possibility of a deeper correction remains. It could retest the 0.382 level at $73,218 or the 0.5 level at $71,624 and then try to break higher again. Conversely, if it loses the 0.618 level at $70,030, the current bullish pattern could be largely invalidated.

The price levels that market participants are watching right now are clear. If it recovers and settles above $75,190, the path to $90,000 could reopen, and if it fails to break higher, the likelihood increases that bitcoin will make another attempt to confirm a support level.