Bitcoin rose 3.71 percent on the day to around $74,000. Still, short-term volatility could increase as the breakdown of U.S.-Iran talks and a spike in oil prices from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz add to inflation and monetary-policy uncertainty. On April 13, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph pointed to factors the market is watching.

The centre of the market shock was the Middle East situation. U.S. President Donald Trump announced measures to close the Strait of Hormuz on April 12 via Truth Social. He said that at some point in the future, regarding the operation of the strait, it would reach a system where "everyone can go in, and everyone can go out."

Markets also reacted immediately. S&P 500 futures fell about 0.6 percent, but oil prices jumped 8 percent in a day and traded around $105 a barrel.

Research firm The Kobeissi Letter said Trump's long-term plan appears to be to close Hormuz to secure control and then reopen traffic. It added that, with no diplomatic solution, Hormuz appears to be Washington's top priority and forecast volatility would increase this week.

For bitcoin, the fallout from a surge in oil prices is more important than the spike itself. U.S. producer price index data for March is due this week. Assessments already suggest price pressures persisted in the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures data released earlier.

Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said Middle East tensions are not the only cause of rising prices. It said annualised inflation over the past three months and six months has been steepening again, and that inflationary pressure is being confirmed outside of the energy-price shock.

This trend could also affect the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate path. CME's FedWatch tool shows markets are barely pricing in the possibility of rate cuts before the second half of 2027. Bitcoin tends to see increased volatility when U.S. inflation data deviates sharply from expectations, making this PPI a factor for near-term price moves.

Looking only at price action, bitcoin avoided a sharp drop despite geopolitical negatives. It fell to around $70,500 during the session, but the weekly close ended above the 200-week exponential moving average and the former 2021 record high. Still, some warn of the possibility of another low. Trader Roman said bitcoin must form at least one more low for a trend reversal on a larger timeframe to be confirmed. He said a bullish divergence in the relative strength index, changes in volume and a reversal pattern are needed.

In the near term, strong profit-taking around $70,000 is capping gains. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said realised profits of more than $20 million an hour emerge whenever bitcoin rises above $70,000, quickly weakening upward momentum. Last week, bitcoin tried several times to turn $70,000 into support, but selling pressure prevented it from settling there.

In contrast, data also showed selling pressure is gradually easing. Amr Taha (아므르 타하) of CryptoQuant said short-term holder pressure on Binance has entered a calmer phase. The 7-day standard deviation reading, which shows realised profit-and-loss pressure among investors over the past six months, fell to 217, the lowest since February. He also presented analysis that whale transfer pressure to Binance is easing while long-term holder demand is strengthening.

In particular, the realised market capitalisation of long-term holders topped $50 billion this week, reaching the highest level in about a year. This is read as a sign that long-term money is increasing bitcoin exposure even as short-term profit-taking continues.

This week, markets are expected to focus on how Middle East risks affect oil prices and inflation data, and on whether bitcoin can turn $70,000 into support.