Bitcoin is hovering near the $73,000 level, but short-term direction has turned uncertain again ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks this weekend. Iran has set a Lebanon ceasefire and the release of frozen assets as preconditions before negotiations.

On April 10 local time, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto said bitcoin could either continue to rise or fall back depending on the outcome of the talks.

Bitcoin rose 5 percent to $72,700 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week truce with Iran on Truth Social on April 7. It later traded just below $73,000. About $595 million in liquidations occurred in the crypto futures market, with most losses concentrated in short positions. Prices reflected both the truce news and easing inflation worries that had weighed on risk assets.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, said a Lebanon ceasefire and the release of frozen Iranian assets must be carried out before talks with the U.S. delegation. He said the two measures agreed between the parties had not yet been implemented and must be met before negotiations begin. The remarks came hours before U.S. Vice President JD Vance left for talks mediated by Pakistan.

Messages from the United States were mixed. Trump said in a New York Post interview that he was rearming U.S. warships in preparation for failed talks and was also preparing military action if Iran does not respond. The White House, by contrast, said the president is optimistic about the possibility of an agreement. Vance also said the United States would respond to talks if Iran negotiates in good faith.

A tense call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also reported just before the talks. Shortly after the call, Israel announced steps to move toward direct ceasefire talks with Lebanon.

If the talks deliver results, bitcoin could rise into the $75,000 to $80,000 range as the geopolitical risk premium falls further. If the talks collapse, it could retest support at $68,000 as worries about disruption in the Strait of Hormuz grow again. Diplomatic schedules over the next 48 hours are expected to determine whether this week’s rebound continues.