Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered the $70,000 level, and an analysis has been raised that strong upside momentum may come more from oil prices and interest rate outlooks than from inside the crypto market.

According to blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan on April 9 local time, bitcoin fell to around $67,000 early this week before rebounding to about $71,000.

The rebound coincided with a rapid drop in international oil prices after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday. Oil fell about 15 percent to below $100 a barrel. Markets are also watching that bitcoin has topped $70,000 several times recently but failed to sustain gains. It means short-term breakouts have repeated, but momentum to support a trend rise has been weak.

Bitfinex analysts said bitcoin could rise further if crude oil prices keep falling. They said if oil stays low, the timing of central bank rate cuts could be brought forward, which could work in favor of bitcoin, which does not pay interest. They also assessed that if falling oil eases inflation pressure that rose in March, the Federal Reserve could have more room to adjust rates later this year.

On the upside, the $72,200 to $73,500 range was cited as a watershed. Adam Saville Brown (애덤 새빌 브라운) of Tesseract Group said about $6 billion worth of short bets has built up in the zone. Another view said if the price breaks above the range, forced buying could push bitcoin up to $80,000.

Still, the upside scenario could be heavily swayed by geopolitical variables. The ceasefire is already showing signs of instability. Israel has conducted air strikes on Lebanon and argued the region was not covered by the agreement, while Pakistan, cited as a mediator, offered a different position. Iranian media reported that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were halted again within hours of the first tanker passing. A warning has emerged that if talks collapse, oil could climb back above $100 a barrel, which could pull bitcoin prices down again.

Rate-cut expectations are also not yet strong. Some analysts see higher energy prices as potentially reigniting inflation without sharply curbing demand. In that case, a view has been raised that the Fed could keep its policy rate around 3.5 percent for some time. Bitfinex warned oil could rise to $120 if a Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. Brown also said the shock could be bigger than at first if the ceasefire breaks down.

Separately, research has also suggested that a strategy of adding bitcoin in small amounts could be more efficient than spreading purchases across several cryptocurrencies. According to last month's research by Fidelity Digital Assets, returns were 24 percent over the past 10 years when a stock and bond portfolio allocated 10 percent to bitcoin. With a 5 percent allocation, annual returns were 17.5 percent, higher than 9.4 percent without bitcoin. BlackRock said an allocation of 1 to 2 percent at the end of 2024 could provide sufficient exposure, and Grayscale presented 5 percent as a balance point between return and risk.