With bitcoin (BTC) staying below $70,000 for most of the first quarter of 2026, an analysis said this is not a sign of a market collapse but of a split among holders and an ongoing shift in ownership.

On April 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that XWIN Research viewed the “exchange whale ratio,” which indicates large-holder volume flowing into exchanges, as having risen steadily throughout the first quarter. When the indicator rises, it is often interpreted as a signal that large players are moving coins to exchanges to sell. In thin-liquidity zones, such selling pressure can cap rallies above resistance lines, it explained.

By contrast, listed companies were net buyers of bitcoin over the same period. XWIN Research estimated that listed firms added about 62,000 BTC on a net basis in the first quarter. Strategy alone bought more than 88,000 BTC, and its holdings total about 762,000 BTC based on filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The report said Strategy pursues a “long-term treasury strategy” that raises funds through convertible bonds and share issuance and converts them into bitcoin, creating demand regardless of price swings.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows were mixed. BlackRock products recorded inflows, but outflows continued from Grayscale’s GBTC, and Sosovalue data also showed large swings, including a shift from a $458 million inflow on March 2 to a $348 million outflow four days later. Still, total ETF assets under management (AUM) stood at $56 billion at the end of March, little changed from $55.26 billion in early March. The report defined this as rotation among products rather than new money coming in.

XWIN Research cited how long corporate buying can absorb whales’ selling pressure as a key variable for the second quarter. It added that until clear net inflows return, ETFs are closer to a neutral factor than a strong catalyst for gains, and the report concluded that bitcoin supply is not disappearing but shifting from early holders to corporate balance sheets.

Ultimately, the market’s focus is on how steadily corporate funds can absorb profit-taking supply from existing large holders. With ETF flows failing to show a clear direction, bitcoin’s price may, for now, react more sensitively to the pace of change in holders than to an expansion of new demand.