On-chain analysis shows bitcoin (BTC) has not yet recorded a “profit structure reset” that was observed in past bear markets, despite downward pressure.

On April 1 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr assessed bitcoin profitability indicators as positioned differently from past cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin has shown a short-term rebound in April. Its price rose 3 percent over 24 hours to move back above $68,000. The outlet said that despite the short-term strength, the broader trend still faces downward pressure and the market has not fully stabilised.

The key basis is long- and short-term averages for the share of coins in profit. Adler said that as of April 1 the share of bitcoin in profit rose to 66.4%, and the 30-day moving average stood at 69.1%. But the 365-day moving average, which he viewed as a more important long-term indicator, remains high at 87.5%. Adler said that in past bear markets this long-term average fell sharply and helped confirm a “full reset”.

He cited an instance in which the 365DMA, which was at 96 to 97% in late 2017, turned down and fell to 63.8% by May 2019. Adler said such a sharp decline signalled a strong correction and a market clean-out phase. By contrast, in the current cycle the 365DMA remains around 87.5% even as short-term indicators wobble, which he interpreted as suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation.

He also compared the latest decline as having deepened in the short term. Adler noted that in the pullbacks in September 2023 and September 2024, only short-term profitability weakened and the long-term average held. In 2026, he said, the indicator decline has progressed further, with a specific profitability indicator falling to 55.7% and the 30DMA dropping to 66.7%, but the 365DMA remains above past reset ranges. On that basis, he concluded: “Profitability is shrinking and pressure is strong, but as long as the 365DMA holds near 87.5%, this phase is closer to a volatile long-term correction than a full bear-market reset.”

Caution over seasonal indicators was also raised. Market watcher Ardi said that since 2014, April has posted an average return of 9.1% and a win rate of 67%, ranking behind October and July. But he stressed that “2026 is a bear market year” and that the same seasonal statistics should be interpreted differently depending on the market phase. He cited April 2014 at -2% and April 2022 at -18.7%, and said April 2018’s +35.7% was “only a sharp rebound within a bear market, not the start of a new cycle.”

In addition, CryptoQuant analyst Tugce pointed to realised price as a key level. “Bitcoin’s realised price is currently $54,000, and in every major bear market it fell below realised price before marking a true bottom,” Tugce said. Tugce warned that while $54,000 could be an important zone for buying interest, the price could fall well below that level and stay there for some time.