Ethereum (ETH) is trading in the $2,100 range, and a head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 12-hour chart, raising talk of a possible drop of about 20 percent.

On April 1, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that the technical setup, exchange-traded fund (ETF) fund flows and slowing on-chain demand could help explain why institutional investors prefer bitcoin (BTC) to Ethereum.

The key is that the price rebound and regulated-product fund flows moved in opposite directions. Ethereum has risen 7 percent over the past 30 days, while bitcoin gained 2.7 percent. Still, bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.32 billion in March, while Ethereum ETF products continued to see net outflows. "Institutions bought bitcoin and sold Ethereum despite the same macro environment and the same geopolitical risks," the outlet said.

Specifically, Ethereum ETF products posted net outflows of $46.01 million in March. Based on data compiled by SoSoValue, the outflow was sharply smaller than in February (-$369.87 million) and January (-$353.20 million), but the net-outflow streak since November 2025 extended to a fifth straight month. The outlet said ETF flows failed to turn positive even in a month when Ethereum prices rose, and assessed that "the rebound did not convince regulated capital."

On-chain data also showed a similar signal. Glassnode's hodler net position change indicator showed that the 30-day rolling increase in holdings by addresses that have held for at least 155 days peaked at 543,169 ETH on March 21, then fell to 109,678 ETH on March 31. That amounts to an roughly 80 percent drop in about 10 days. The outlet said mid- to long-term holders accumulated through mid-March but sharply slowed their buying pace over the final 10 days of the month.

The outlet's main point is that if ETF flows and long-term holders' buying strength weaken at the same time, the demand base supporting prices thins. BeInCrypto reported that "institutional money exits through regulated products, and long-term spot holders reduce accumulation, thinning the 'floor' under Ethereum's price."

It also presented a technical warning signal. In the head-and-shoulders formation that has taken shape since late February, the head peak was set at $2,380, while the price stayed in the $2,100 range that marks the right-shoulder area. The measured downside from the neckline was 19.32 percent, with a target zone of $1,570. There has not yet been a break below the neckline.

In the near term, the 20- and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMA) on Ethereum's 12-hour chart stood at $2,070 and $2,080, respectively. The analysis suggested that a move below $2,070 could open a decline path to $2,010 and $1,950, the neckline area. It also cited $1,840 (0.618) as an intermediate support if $1,950 gives way, and pointed to $1,400 as an extension zone if selling pressure rises. A 12-hour candle close above $2,120 could delay a downside move, but it set a break above $2,380 as the threshold for invalidating the pattern.