An on-chain analysis says bitcoin has not yet reached conditions that appeared at clear bottoms in past cycles.

Blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported on April 1 that bitcoin's spot price is well above its realized price, keeping most holders in profit.

The key evidence is the gap between the spot price and realized price. Bitcoin is trading at $68,774, while its realized price is $54,286, a difference of about $14,500, or about 21 percent. Realized price means the average purchase price of all coins, based on the last moved price. It is used as a leading on-chain indicator to gauge market bottoms. In the past, when the spot price fell below realized price and the broader market moved into losses, a strong accumulation phase repeatedly followed, it said.

Compared with past cases, some interpret current signals as showing weaker signs of full capitulation. In the 2022 bear market, bitcoin traded below realized price for months, and at the low it fell about 15 percent below realized price. The bottom range at the time was presented as around $15,500. A similar dynamic during the 2020 COVID-19 shock also saw widening losses create conditions for accumulation. This time, with the spot price about 21 percent above realized price, it is difficult to say full capitulation has appeared, it said.

The speed at which the gap has narrowed is also notable. In late 2024, when bitcoin was above $119,000, the premium over realized price was about 120 percent. Over about 15 months, that premium quickly compressed to around 21 percent. Such rapid compression is typically observed alongside major downturns, but this time it occurred without a broad collapse, it said.

Interpretations also differ on whether the current period is an accumulation zone. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen (오이노넨) recently mentioned that bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase and cited similarities with the 2022 bottom. The original text added that in past cycles, true accumulation zones generally formed when price fell to realized price or below it. It also introduced a counterargument that it is too early to label the current stage a confirmed accumulation zone.

Other market indicators also show mixed signals. The Coinbase Premium Index recently turned negative, suggesting weaker U.S.-based demand, including from institutions. By contrast, in price action bitcoin has held a $65,000 to $70,000 range for about 5 weeks and remained relatively stable despite geopolitical tensions, with mention of U.S.-Iran conflict, it reported. It also cited March ETF inflows of more than $1 billion, suggesting investment demand has not fully faded despite uncertainty.

Overall, the analysis says bitcoin is moving closer to a price area often cited as a long-term buying opportunity, but it still lacks decisive conditions that confirmed past bottoms. The outlet stressed that broad losses across holders were a repeated feature of past bottoms. It said judgment on confirming a bottom should be deferred until pressure emerges that brings the spot price close to realized price or below it.