Bitcoin (BTC) remained weak around $68,000 on March 31, local time, as it neared the close of the first quarter amid geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty. Blockchain outlet The Block Crypto reported that bitcoin briefly slid below $66,000 before trading around $68,000. Ethereum (ETH) also moved around $2,035, near the $2,000 level.

Bitcoin has repeatedly swung near the lower end of its recent trading range. It rebounded the previous day as the tone of remarks related to U.S.-Iran tensions shifted, but it soon gave back part of those gains and the market again showed a risk-off bias.

Institutional inflows were also limited. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw net inflows of $69.4 million on March 30, while ethereum products took in $5 million, according to on-chain analytics firm SoSoValue. Demand returned slightly, but it was far from enough to change overall investor sentiment.

Companies' buy and sell strategies also diverged. Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto Holdings disclosed it sold after taking losses of $20 million. Michael Saylor's Strategy paused its weekly purchases that had continued for weeks, breaking the cumulative buying run. American Bitcoin (ABTC), backed by the family of U.S. President Donald Trump, increased its holdings to more than 70 million BTC even as its share price fell.

External factors that could add to market uncertainty also drew attention. Simon Masrabi (사이먼 마사브니), head of business development at XS.com, said rising oil prices, inflation pressure and expectations for tight monetary policy were limiting appetite for risk assets. Ryan Lee (라이언 리) of Bitget Research cited weakness in Asian stock markets and a surge in oil prices, and explained that geopolitical risk has had a bigger impact on capital allocation. Kyle Rodda (카일 로다) of Capital.com pointed to remarks suggesting the Trump administration could target Iran's energy infrastructure if negotiations fail, saying that may have amplified market reactions.

Within the crypto market, an analysis said shrinking liquidity is making prices more sensitive. Bitunix analysts said bitcoin is moving in a narrow band of $66,100 to $68,500, and that liquidity inflows, rather than conviction on direction, are driving prices. They said prices have become more sensitive to short-term catalysts such as economic indicators and geopolitical headlines as market makers pull back, spreads widen and liquidity declines.

With no strong buying catalyst in sight to quickly reverse sentiment, bitcoin appears to have entered a phase where prices can swing easily on external shocks. Whether sentiment recovers is likely to depend on easing geopolitical tensions, a calming of macro uncertainty, and a clearer return of institutional inflows.