[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Bitcoin (BTC) has remained trapped for the past two months in a roughly $10,000 range between $60,000 and $70,000. An analysis said leverage-driven trading, weakening spot demand and persistent losses among short-term holders have combined to prevent an upside break from gaining sustained momentum.

Cointelegraph reported on March 31 that crypto market maker Wintermute sees perpetual futures trading at major exchanges continuing to dominate spot participation. The ratio of perpetual futures to spot volume, or perp-to-spot, rose as high as 15 times, cited as a sign of the growing impact of leveraged positioning. Funding rates swung between positive and negative, failing to form a clear trend.

Another signal suggests leverage is holding up but conviction has weakened. Funding rate volatility was 2.9 percent, down from the 5 percent range in 2025. It described a 'coiling' structure in which large position shifts decline and short-term rotations repeat within a narrow range.

Spot market demand also failed to recover. As of March 30, 'apparent demand' was minus 60,000 BTC, indicating outflows exceeded accumulation. The volume of stablecoins flowing into spot exchanges was about $452 million, near a two-year low. The low reading in this indicator, often interpreted as spot buying power, supports the view that new funds are not actively entering the market.

Accumulating losses among short-term holders were also cited as a factor weighing on the upside. The realized price, or average acquisition cost, for the short-term holder cohort was about $85,800, and Bitcoin has traded below that level, leaving many recent buyers with unrealised losses, the analysis said. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr (악셀 아들러 주니어) said short-term holder SOPR, an on-chain indicator used to gauge whether holders are selling assets at a profit or loss, has stayed below 1.0 for more than 110 days.

It also said the year-on-year change in the short-term holder realized price was minus 5.35 percent, turning negative for the first time since the 2022 bear market. With losses persisting for months rather than ending quickly, selling may increase even on small rebounds, limiting upside potential, it said.