An analysis said periods when bitcoin investors trade below the realised price have historically functioned as a strong buying zone.

On March 31, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Tugce cited CryptoQuant indicators and argued that if bitcoin falls below a realised price of $54,000, it could be a favourable zone for gradual buying.

The analysis was raised as bitcoin has recently stayed in a weak trend, the outlet said. Bitcoin is down 22.92 percent so far this year and is currently trading near $68,000. The downtrend intensified from October 2025, bringing the cumulative decline to 41 percent. Demand is growing to gauge where the bottom may be, even as the market hopes for a rebound.

Realised price, presented as the key basis, refers to the average purchase price at which market participants hold bitcoin. Tugce explained that the indicator "helps determine whether an asset is at a premium (overvalued) or a discount (undervalued)." He stressed that when bitcoin falls below this level it often signals a market capitulation phase, and that zones of rising fear and extremely deteriorating sentiment have instead been buying opportunities for long-term investors.

The realised price presented is about $54,000. Bitcoin would need to fall at least another 20 percent to drop below that level.

Tugce stressed, however, that trading below the realised price does not immediately mean a bottom. In past cycles, the time bitcoin stayed below realised price varied widely from 7 days to 301 days, and additional declines could appear even after the breach. He advised a phased approach rather than deploying funds at once.

He also cited past cases. In the 2014 to 2015 bear market, bitcoin fell below the realised price of $321 to $314 in early January 2015, then dropped further to $176. In 2018, it fell below the realised price of $4,824 to $4,465 in November, then declined to $3,236 in December. In November 2022, it slipped below the realised price of $21,000 to $20,924, then fell to about $15,000 before forming a bottom.

Overall, the analysis points to two things to watch. First is whether the realised price zone presented at $54,000 can serve as a benchmark for judging undervaluation. It also highlights that even if bitcoin falls below that level, the period below could lengthen as in the past and additional declines are possible, making investors' ability to keep to staged buying and risk management principles a key variable in a period of volatility.