[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] A warning has emerged that five major risk factors that could shake the direction of the cryptocurrency market are converging at once this week.

According to blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on the 30th, Binance Research said in its “Geopolitical and Macro Pulse” report that multiple variables could act simultaneously, from Middle East geopolitical risks to U.S. regulation, delays in exchange-traded fund (ETF) reviews, releases of key economic indicators and a liquidity gap in stock markets.

The report said recent market conditions are also showing an unstable trend. The volatility index (VIX) is rising, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are falling together, pointing to widening volatility across risk assets. Over the same period, oil prices have risen. Ethereum (ETH) also posted only a limited rebound, suggesting cryptocurrencies may struggle to show an independently stable trend.

The first variable is Middle East-driven geopolitical risk. According to a statement by U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM), the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli deployed to the Middle East carrying about 3,500 U.S. troops, and tensions are rising as Yemen’s Houthi rebels continued with ballistic missile launches. The report said if U.S.-Israel conflict over Iran intensifies in earnest, energy prices and risk aversion could strengthen at the same time. It added that uncertainty is being reflected in prediction markets as probabilities for a ceasefire and normalization of major maritime routes are priced low.

Risk perceptions among market participants were also reflected in prediction-market probabilities. On Polymarket, the likelihood of a “ceasefire by end-April” remained at 32 percent, while “normalization of the Strait of Hormuz” was lower at 21 percent, Binance Research introduced.

The second is the issue of stablecoin regulation. Market shock emerged after the latest draft of the CLARITY Act, under discussion in the U.S. Senate, included a provision banning “Passive Rewards” that provided interest income simply for holding stablecoins. The report said Circle’s market capitalization fell sharply over a short period after the details were disclosed. It added that bipartisan support was confirmed at a tokenization-related hearing, leaving open the possibility of a future vote.

The third variable is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s delay in ETF reviews. Binance Research said the SEC did not make final decisions on 91 pending cryptocurrency ETF applications even after the March 27 deadline, and that market volatility could increase depending on whether approvals are granted or timelines are extended. With expectations for ETFs tied to XRP and Solana (SOL) persisting, it said related announcements could be an event that triggers short-term price swings.

The fourth and fifth variables are macroeconomic indicators and the liquidity environment. Scheduled this week are remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as well as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) and the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. These are expected to directly affect rate expectations and the liquidity outlook, and to act as key variables shaping risk-asset appetite. At the same time, the continuation of the share buyback blackout period through end-April, reducing major corporate buying demand, was also cited as a burden on the market.

Binance Research said investors need to comprehensively review changes in regulatory wording, policy schedules and fund flows rather than focus on individual news items.