As expectations grow for expanded global liquidity, scenarios for bitcoin to resume its rise are being discussed again. The market mood is leaving room for the possibility of setting a new high if a liquidity shift materialises.

On Feb. 22 (local time), blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Raoul Pal (라울 팔), a macro investor and former executive at global investment bank Goldman Sachs, argued bitcoin is in an "undervalued phase" relative to current global liquidity conditions. He said the gap between liquidity expansion and prices has often been filled in one big move rather than gradually narrowing. "If liquidity expands, bitcoin does not rise slowly but suddenly moves to the upper band," he said.

Pal said global liquidity is likely to surge in the first quarter of 2026. If bank regulations are eased, especially through adjustments to the "enhanced supplementary leverage ratio" (ESLR), banks could absorb more government debt, which could increase the U.S. Treasury's capacity to supply liquidity, he explained. He added that a decline in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has been interpreted as a sign of expanding market liquidity. A weaker dollar and China's liquidity expansion could also combine to create a favourable environment for risk assets, including bitcoin, he said.

Pal forecast bitcoin could reach $140,000 faster than the market expects. That would be about a 106 percent rise from the current price. "According to the global liquidity model, bitcoin should be near $140,000," he said. He also said improving supply chain indicators are lifting companies' growth expectations, which could create a favourable environment for risk assets such as bitcoin.

He pointed, however, to the large-scale liquidation event on Oct. 10, 2025, as a factor that constrained the upward trend. Forced deleveraging and an exchange API error overlapped at the time, sharply reducing market liquidity and amplifying the price decline, he explained. "These structural factors are gradually being resolved," Pal said, adding that the market is preparing for a new upswing.

Bitcoin has recently slipped back to around $64,000, with short-term volatility picking up again. The market sees expectations of a liquidity shift as potentially influencing the medium- to long-term direction, and expects key points to watch to be whether major support levels hold during a period of price adjustment and how liquidity indicators trend in the near term.