As worries about a U.S. recession grow, attention is focusing on whether bitcoin will post a rebound similar to the one in 2020.

On March 26 local time, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin is maintaining a high correlation with the stock market, as Larry Fink (래리 핑크), CEO of BlackRock, warned that rising oil prices could trigger a global recession.

Data recently released by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr (악셀 애들러 주니어) showed the probability of a U.S. recession nearing 50 percent. Moody's Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 48.6 percent. Goldman Sachs also revised its forecast to 30 percent.

On prediction market Kalshi, the probability of a U.S. recession also rose to 36 percent. A U.S.-Iran war and a sharp rise in oil prices are cited as major factors. Mosaic Asset Co analysed that if oil prices rise 50 percent above the long-term trend, the likelihood of a recession increases. Fink said, "As long as Iran remains a threat to the global economy, a recession is inevitable even if the war ends."

Bitcoin has little experience of past recessions, but it posted strong gains after the U.S. recession from February to April 2020. At the time, bitcoin fell alongside global stock markets but later recovered. Since the start of this year, bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities has strengthened further, and the possibility of a short-term rebound has also been raised. Mosaic said, "Inflation and monetary policy uncertainty are weighing on the market, but a short-term rally could unfold."

If a U.S. recession becomes reality, bitcoin is expected to face another test. Market attention is focusing on whether it will rebound as in 2020 or find a new direction amid global economic contraction.

Separately, a recent Charles Schwab report said bitcoin's volatility fell to 42 percent in 2025, showing a more stable trend than Tesla at 63 percent and Nvidia at 50 percent. That is about half the level compared with 2021, and bitcoin is showing a stable trend even compared with traditional assets such as silver and gold.