Uncertainty is growing over the cryptocurrency market as 2026 begins. With 2025 unfolding differently from market forecasts, debate has intensified over whether this year could lead to an extreme bear market. On Jan. 2, local time, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto analysed this year’s market outlook with several industry experts.

Optimism dominated in 2025 amid what was seen as a favorable environment, including a pro-cryptocurrency U.S. president, Federal Reserve rate cuts and expanding liquidity. The market, however, ended the year in a downtrend, and bitcoin fell 5.7 percent for the year, posting its worst fourth quarter since 2018. Experts are therefore reviewing existing market forecasting models. In particular, questions are being raised about whether bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains valid.

Nick Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, said market dynamics have changed significantly due to ETF approvals and inflows of institutional money. He said macroeconomic and geopolitical factors would be more important variables going forward. Jamie Elkaleh, chief marketing officer at Bitget Wallet, said bitcoin has become more sensitive to Fed policy and global liquidity, and that institutional money is easing supply shocks. Andrey Grachev of DWL Labs said that as cryptocurrencies increasingly move like a global asset class, simple cyclical forecasts have become difficult.

According to long-term models such as the Benner cycle, 2026 is classified as a “good time,” but experts do not conclude that a bull market will simply arrive. Elkaleh said the disappointing performance in 2025 shows the market is moving beyond a speculative phase and transitioning into an asset tied to macroeconomics. He forecast that 2026 is likely to be a period of structural adjustment.

With the outlook not optimistic, there are also factors that could trigger an extreme bear market in 2026. Puckrin warned that if an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble bursts, global liquidity shrinks and structural shocks combine, the market could plunge. Elkaleh added that if an AI bubble bursts, the Fed tightens policy and major exchanges go bankrupt, prices could fall to around $55,000 to $60,000.

On the other hand, downside risks could diminish if institutional money flows in and macroeconomic conditions improve. Elkaleh predicted the market could rebound if G20 countries begin holding bitcoin in earnest and tokenisation of financial assets accelerates.