Bitcoin is moving in tandem with U.S. stocks, raising the possibility it could fall 50%. Blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported this on Saturday local time.

Bitcoin's 20-week correlation with the S&P 500 has turned positive, prompting forecasts of an average 50% drop based on past cases. BTC has given up gains tied to the U.S.-Iran war and is falling alongside U.S. stocks. BTC/USD is down 5.65% on the week to $68,700, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.90%.

The BTC-S&P 500 correlation coefficient is 0.13, rebounding sharply from a recent low of -0.5. Similar patterns since 2018 have been accompanied by large declines in bitcoin, with an average drop of 50%. Analyst Tony Severino (토니 세베리노) warned, "A stock market collapse will drag BTC down with it."

Macroeconomic uncertainty is also raising the likelihood of a decline. Rising oil prices, inflation and reduced prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts are weighing on both bitcoin and stocks. In addition, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a major corporate holder of BTC, has recently stopped buying BTC, weakening upward momentum.

As bitcoin becomes more closely connected to the global economy, macro trends are having a greater impact on price than short-term bullish factors. Investors need to focus on risk management by referring to past patterns.