Bitcoin (BTC) is seen as likely to fall further through 2026.

Cointelegraph reported on March 19 that prediction markets see a 65 to 71 percent chance that bitcoin will fall to $55,000 or lower this year. A lack of upside momentum and macroeconomic uncertainty are cited as key factors. Uncertainty over the interest rate path and concerns over shrinking liquidity are combining to weigh on risk assets, the report said.

Polymarket reflects a 71 percent chance that bitcoin will fall below $55,000 by year-end. That is sharply higher than the previous day and shows short-term investor sentiment is tightening quickly. The probability of a fall to $50,000 or lower was 59 percent, while the chance of a drop to $45,000 was 46 percent. An interpretation has emerged that market participants are increasingly treating a downside scenario as a realistic base case.

Kalshi, another prediction market, also showed a similar trend. The probability of bitcoin falling to $60,000 or lower was 71 percent, while the chance of a move to $55,000 or lower was tallied at 65 percent. The probability of a sharp drop to $40,000 was relatively lower at 31 percent. That suggests more weight is being placed on a gradual decline or a prolonged correction rather than a sharp plunge.

Recent price moves also support that outlook. Bitcoin fell to about $59,000 in early February and later recovered the $70,000 level, but has not formed a clear uptrend. With the last time it traded below $55,000 being February 2024, market attention is focused on the possibility that range could open again. Some analysts are also warning that a past rebound to $76,000 may have been a bull trap.

The current price is below Strategy's average purchase price of about $75,000. Still, the market sees limited odds that the company will move to large-scale selling. In prediction markets, the probability that Strategy will sell bitcoin in 2026 was assessed at less than 15 percent, while the chance it will increase holdings to more than 800,000 BTC was put at above 96 percent.

Strategy recently bought an additional 22,337 BTC for about $1.6 billion, lifting its cumulative holdings to about 761,000 BTC. That is interpreted as a sign that a long-term accumulation trend among institutional investors remains intact.

Short-term supply and demand appears to be weakening somewhat. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recently seen net outflows, with withdrawals particularly notable from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund. BlackRock's ETF also recorded net outflows of tens of millions of dollars, reflecting a pullback in investor sentiment.