U.S. Federal Reserve researchers assessed prediction market platform Kalshi as a useful tool for measuring macroeconomic expectations. The researchers also presented an analysis that, in some indicators, it showed more accurate predictive power than traditional surveys and financial derivatives.

Cointelegraph and other major foreign media reported on Feb. 19 that three economists affiliated with the Fed said in a recent paper, "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," that Kalshi provides high-frequency, continuously updated data and rich probability distributions, making it valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

The paper was co-authored by Anthony Diercks (앤서니 디어크스), a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board, research assistant Jared Dane Katz (제러드 데인 카츠), and Jonathan Wright (조나단 라이트), a research scholar at Johns Hopkins University.

The study found Kalshi outperformed traditional methods on two key indicators. First, for consumer price index (CPI) forecasts, expectations presented by Kalshi showed a statistically significant improvement over the Bloomberg consensus. Second, in predicting the Fed's interest rate policy, the median and mode of Kalshi's prediction market were more accurate than fed funds futures as of the day before the rate decision, which the researchers assessed as a "statistically meaningful improvement."

The researchers explained that "expectations management is a core part of modern macroeconomic policy, but surveys and existing derivatives markets have limitations." They added that "Kalshi can directly capture the beliefs of market participants in real time."

Kalshi operates betting markets on a range of macroeconomic events, including the U.S. CPI, employment indicators, GDP growth and gasoline prices. The researchers suggested that using this data can build a "risk-neutral probability density function" for rate decisions at a given Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. They described this as a way to see all possible policy outcomes and their probabilities at a glance.

The Fed particularly highlighted that Kalshi provides "intraday dynamics" in which the probability distribution shifts sharply immediately before and after major policy announcements. It said this showed rate-cut probabilities moving sharply over a short period depending on comments by Fed officials and the release of employment reports. The paper drew a line, however, saying it is "preliminary material to foster discussion" and is not directly reflected in actual monetary policy decisions.

Kalshi said it welcomed the study's findings. Kalshi Chief Executive Tarek Mansour (타렉 만소르) said on X, formerly Twitter, that "the Fed released an impressive paper using Kalshi data."

Questions have recently been raised about the reliability of government statistics, and interest among investors in alternative economic forecasting tools is rising. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon (데이비드 솔로몬) said in January that the bank is reviewing entering prediction markets.

As similar platforms such as Polymarket gain popularity, some lawmakers are raising concerns about the risks of insider trading and the potential spread of gambling. Whether prediction markets can be used as a policy tool, or become a new target of regulation, is expected to be a key issue in future discussions.