An analysis said the cryptocurrency market is undergoing structural change as it moves away from the traditional four-year halving cycle. It said a new trend combining global liquidity, institutional money and the regulatory environment is leading the market, rather than a simple pattern of reduced supply and rising prices.

According to blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on March 19 local time, global exchange CoinEx said in a recent report that bitcoin could reach as high as $180,000 by the end of 2026. It stressed this was not a definitive forecast but a probabilistic scenario possible if macroeconomic and market conditions align.

CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko (제프 코) said, "This cycle is fundamentally different from the past." He said bitcoin is now moving not simply on the halving but on a combination of macro liquidity, institutional fund flows and internal crypto factors.

CoinEx highlighted the global liquidity cycle as a key variable. It said that if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues accommodative monetary policy beyond rate cuts, a broader shift of money into risk assets could create conditions for bitcoin to rise. It also said that if crypto regulations become clearer in the United States and major countries, institutional investor inflows are likely to accelerate further.

It cited spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds as central to the market structure change. Unlike in the past, an ongoing channel for institutional buying has formed, creating what it described as a buffer that prevents price corrections from immediately turning into a collapse. It said that even during a recent correction phase, ETF inflows continued and supported downside levels.

The derivatives market has also changed. Instead of high-risk leveraged trading amplifying volatility as in the past, more stable arbitrage-focused money is increasing and shifting in a direction that eases market shocks. It said this makes it unlikely that the 80 percent-scale crashes seen in past cycles will occur again.

Changes are also expected in the altcoin market. CoinEx said that rather than an "altcoin season" in which the entire market surges at the same time, a "selective rise" is more likely, with funds concentrating on some projects with clear real-world use cases and profit models.

It also said future growth drivers include bitcoin-based DeFi, known as BTCFi, and tokenised government bonds, among other practical financial infrastructure. It forecast that real use cases such as collateral, payments and asset management will become a core pillar of the market, rather than simple speculation.

CoinEx said, "The next cycle is no longer explained by a single narrative." It said structural change combining liquidity, regulation, institutional participation and real-world utility will lead the market.